On This Water

The Saturday Letter · Vol. 1 · No. 32

Week of the water

August 3 – August 9, 2026 · August fundamentals · All coasts · 7 of 7 desks · frozen Saturday issue

Permalink: /newsletter/2026-08-08

This week on your coast

August is the short-day version of July, which is to say: still hot, still honest. Texas reds work the first moving water; trout stay deep. Keys bones at first light, thunder by two. Andros summer schools and west-side permit if it lays down. Flounder are a September story — do not force them. Fly in the morning. Shade at noon. The desks below are this week, live.

Drawn from Galveston, Venice, Islamorada, Andros, Ascension, San Juan, and Alphonse — one desk per theater, not every micro-area. Scores are 1–10. They are not bite guarantees. Read this month’s seasonal fundamentals.

Seven desks

That Saturday

Texas desk

Galveston

Wind is the tide

8.3OF 10

Today

high

Redfish are the hunt — push West and East Bay grass as the wind lets water back in. Heat is the clock — first light or last light.

Same heat, slightly shorter days. Trout still deep. Reds on the first moving water. Flounder are a September story — do not force them.

Water.
9 mph SSW · 0% rain · 92°F water
Tide.
incoming · -0.3 ft vs the table
Moon.
Waxing gibbous · mid
Window.
Incoming water — Moving water in the right part of the day.
5.2Redfish5.2Speckled trout

Tide is incoming from NOAA.

Observed water is close to the astronomical prediction — the table is telling the truth today.

Open the Galveston brief

Louisiana desk

Venice

River is the tide

8.3OF 10

Today

medium

Redfish should be the day — flood the west-bank ponds, then the south passes if the bulls are in.

Same heat. Venice tarpon thinning. Reds on the first moving water. Flounder are an October story here.

Water.
2 mph ESE · 7% rain
Tide.
incoming · -0.5 ft vs the table
Moon.
Waxing gibbous · mid
Window.
Incoming water — Moving water in the right part of the day.
6.6Redfish6.6Speckled trout6.6Tarpon

Tide is incoming from NOAA.

On this coast the wind often outruns the printed tide. Observed water is -0.45 ft versus the prediction.

Open the Venice brief

Florida desk

Islamorada

Educated fish, short windows

4.4OF 10

Today

high

Permit are the hunt — oceanside permit and bones, or Channel 5 current — not a Texas marsh sentence. Heat is the clock — first light or last light.

Snook still closed — Boca through September, Jupiter through August. Bones at first light. Thunder by two.

Water.
3 mph ESE · thunderstorms · 92°F water
Tide.
incoming · +0.2 ft vs the table
Moon.
Waxing gibbous · mid
Window.
Incoming water — Moving water in the right part of the day.
7.0Hogfish7.0Yellowtail snapper5.2Tarpon5.2Permit

Tide is incoming from NOAA.

Observed water is close to the astronomical prediction — the table is telling the truth today.

Open the Islamorada brief

Bahamas desk

Andros

Bonefish country

8.1OF 10

Today

medium

Permit should be the day — west-side white sand — schools, then the double-digit singles.

Summer pattern holds. Smaller packs, honest shots, west-side permit if it lays down. Fly in the morning. Shade at noon.

Water.
4 mph NE · 0% rain
Tide.
incoming
Moon.
Waxing gibbous · mid
Window.
Incoming water — Moving water in the right part of the day.
6.6Tarpon6.6Permit

Tide is incoming (modeled — no NOAA gauge on this water).

Clear · 0%. Sky is workable.

Open the Andros brief

Mexico desk

Ascension

Two oceans

6.3OF 10

Today

medium

Permit are the hunt — wait for the next inch — this bay empties.

Same heat. Gordo if the water is right. Ascension at dawn. Sail are a winter story.

Water.
5 mph N · 35% rain
Tide.
low slack
Moon.
Waxing gibbous · mid
Window.
Outgoing water — Moving water in the right part of the day.
5.5Tarpon5.5Permit

Tide is low slack (modeled — no NOAA gauge on this water).

Mostly clear. Clouds steal the window on bones and permit.

Open the Ascension brief

Puerto Rico desk

San Juan

Urban tarpon, then the drop

8.4OF 10

Today

high

Tarpon should be the day — the same harbor throats as they dump.

Same heat. Parguera trees at first light. The north drop if a storm missed you.

Water.
9 mph E · 10% rain · 86°F water
Tide.
outgoing · +0.5 ft vs the table
Moon.
Waxing gibbous · mid
Window.
Outgoing water — Moving water in the right part of the day.
8.4Mangrove / gray snapper8.2Tarpon6.6Snook

Tide is outgoing from NOAA.

The gauge is +0.49 ft off the predicted table — read the water, not just the printout.

Open the San Juan brief

Seychelles desk

Alphonse

GT country

5.4OF 10

Today

medium

Giant trevally are the hunt — wait for the next inch — this atoll empties. Work the leeward shore — fly gets harder.

Still the windy half. Plan Mahé or wait for October.

Water.
23 mph SE · 0% rain
Tide.
low slack
Moon.
Waxing gibbous · mid
Window.
Outgoing water — Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
5.5Permit5.5Giant trevally

Tide is low slack (modeled — no NOAA gauge on this water).

Overcast. Clouds steal the window on bones and permit.

Open the Alphonse brief

Box score · August

In peak this month

  • Hogfish

    Florida · Bahamas · Mexico · Puerto Rico

    Keys and Caribbean patch reefs. Not a Texas bay fish. Not a bonefish headline. He lives on the hard bottom, not the grass.

  • Yellowtail snapper

    Florida · Bahamas · Mexico · Puerto Rico

    Islamorada to Key West, then the Bahamas and the Spanish Virgins. Patch reefs and the first drop. Absent from Texas bays.

  • Mangrove / gray snapper

    Texas · Louisiana · Florida · Bahamas · Mexico · Puerto Rico

    The snapper that will live in a Texas jetty and a Keys creek. Schoolies on structure. Bigger fish on the wrecks. Not a yellowtail.

  • Lane snapper

    Texas · Florida · Mexico · Puerto Rico

    Nearshore Gulf and Caribbean hard bottom. Texas jetties and the first reefs. Not the federal red-snapper story.

  • Tripletail

    Texas · Louisiana · Florida

    Summer Gulf. Traps, weed, and channel markers. Texas and Louisiana live on this fish. Not a wreck grouper.

  • King mackerel

    Texas · Louisiana · Florida · Mexico

    Texas and Florida summer kings. The beach and the first wrecks. Not a trout. Not a wahoo.

  • Striped marlin

    Mexico

    Eastern Pacific. East Cape and the mouth of the Cortez. Absent from Texas, Louisiana, the Keys, the Bahamas, Puerto Rico, and the Seychelles. Same rule as the rooster: this ocean only.

  • Roosterfish

    Mexico

    Eastern Pacific — Baja East Cape and La Paz, Costa Rica, Panama. Absent from Texas, Louisiana, the Keys, the Bahamas, Puerto Rico, and the Seychelles. Lives on this atlas only on the Mexico Pacific desks.

Noise, not the headline: Jack crevalle, Great barracuda.

Rules

Closed or closing

  • SE Florida snook (Jupiter, Keys, Biscayne)

    Typically closed Dec 15–Jan 31 and June 1–Aug 31. Catch-and-release is still fishing. Do not harvest a snook because a desk scored an 8.

  • Charlotte Harbor / Boca Grande snook

    Typically closed Dec 1–end of Feb and May 1–Sep 30. Gulf region, not Atlantic. Verify FWC.

August by region, type, and species

Regs citedTPWD Outdoor Annual · Sep 1, 2025–Aug 31, 2026 · rolls in 8 days. Texas bag and season roll every September 1. The stamp is the book we cited, not a license.