On This Water

Florida · Middle Keys / Marathon

Permit should be the day — the bridge shadow and the falling wrecks.

Vaca Key gauge. Oceanside wrecks and patch reefs, bayside basins, Seven Mile Bridge current. Permit and tarpon more than bones.

  • This brief is for 2027-02-23, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
  • FKNMS no-take water in this box: Sombrero Key, Coffins Patch. The red polygons are the legal source — do not fish them.
  • Tide · NOAA 8723970
  • NDBC SMKF1 quiet
  • Red-tide check failed — not all-clear
  • Sargassum check failed — not all-clear
  • Water temp quiet
8.0OF 10

Forecast

medium confidence

Forecast brief for Tuesday, February 23. Back to this morning

Morning line

Marathon 8.0 on Tuesday, February 23. 12 mph ESE. Mostly clear. YOLO day is Tuesday, August 25. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-0.7-0.30.10.50.9LHLHLHLHMon 7 PMTue 7 PMWed 7 PMThu 7 PMFri 7 PM
outgoing · 0.03 ft · drag or hover for the clockNOAA tide gauge 8723970 · Vaca Key, Florida Bay · ft MLLW · not a weather buoy

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW12MPH

From ESE · gust 14

Buoy

NDBC SMKF1

Quiet

Sombrero Key did not report. Witness only — not the tide clock.

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clouds

Mostly clear

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

94% lit

Waning gibbous

mid range · 94%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 0.8 ft

outgoing

0.03 ft MLLW

Coast

No live coast layer

Red-tide check failed. That is not all-clear — open the agency page before you wade.

Sargassum check failed. Not a GPS pin. Not all-clear.

Clock

NOAA 8723970

  • LowTue 7:45 AM · 0.03
  • HighTue 3:22 PM · 0.51
  • LowTue 8:17 PM · -0.21
  • HighWed 4:23 AM · 0.43
  • LowWed 8:24 AM · 0.03

Monthly YOLO day

Tuesday, August 25

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waxing gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.4 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 49%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • FL - Long Key State Park (Keys)

    sand dropoff · saved map · mid

    8.4

    Oceanfront camping with bonefish flats at the tent. Reserve far ahead. · camp-surf · GULF ATLAS! - FISH

    • sand dropoff on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Yellowtail snapper.
    structurespinwade
  • Seven Mile Bridge current

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    7.4

    Current seams. Permit and tarpon. Not a bonefish walk.

    • channel gut on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Permit.
    skiffstructurespinfly
  • Vaca oceanside wrecks / patches

    wreck edge · field manual · deep

    7.3

    Crab on the wreck is a different permit game than the tailer on the flat.

    • wreck edge on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Permit.
    skiffspinfly
  • Marathon bayside basins

    grass flat · public structure · mid

    4.9

    Vaca Key gauge. Backcountry light. Summer showers, then wait for the color to come back.

    • grass flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    skiffkayakflyspin

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. First light and last light are named when the clock is the story. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Outgoing water

    9.9

    Tue 8:00 AMTue 10:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    9.9

    Tue 9:00 AMTue 5:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Last light · outgoing

    9.6

    Tue 5:00 PMTue 10:00 PM

    Last light on outgoing water.

  • Last light · incoming

    8.6

    Tue 10:00 PMWed 6:00 AM

    Last light on incoming water.

  • First light · outgoing

    9.9

    Wed 6:00 AMWed 10:00 AM

    First light on outgoing water.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Bahia Honda State Park

    Florida State Parks

    Middle Keys bridge and oceanside. Adjacent FKNMS polygons are no-take — check the red rings.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

  • Sombrero Key

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Coffins Patch

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS

Why — and who

  • Tide is outgoing from NOAA 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay.
  • Mostly clear. Sky is workable.
  • Wind 12 mph ESE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • Waning gibbous moon — mid tide range. Marsh and passes usually want the extra current of a spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

8.4

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

6.6

Thermal window

66°92°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

6.6

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

4.8

Thermal window

68°94°

Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

4.8

Thermal window

66°90°

Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

4.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.