On This Water

Florida · Middle Keys / Marathon

Bonefish should be the day — the bridge shadow and the falling wrecks.

Vaca Key gauge. Oceanside wrecks and patch reefs, bayside basins, Seven Mile Bridge current. Permit and tarpon more than bones.

  • This brief is for 2026-12-17, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
  • Snook are typically closed to harvest on the SE/Atlantic coast in this window. Verify FWC.
  • FKNMS no-take water in this box: Sombrero Key, Coffins Patch. The red polygons are the legal source — do not fish them.
8.3OF 10

Forecast

medium confidence

Forecast brief for Thursday, December 17. Back to this morning

Morning line

Marathon 8.3 on Thursday, December 17. 11 mph ESE. Mostly clear. YOLO day is Friday, August 28. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-0.30.10.50.91.2HLHLHLHLWed 7 PMThu 7 PMFri 7 PMSat 7 PMSun 7 PM
outgoing · 0.65 ft · drag or hover for the clockNOAA tide gauge 8723970 · Vaca Key, Florida Bay · ft MLLW · not a weather buoy

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW11MPH

From ESE · gust 12

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clouds

Mostly clear

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

58% lit

First quarter

neap range · 58%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 0.6 ft

outgoing

0.65 ft MLLW

Clock

NOAA 8723970

  • HighThu 6:33 AM · 0.72
  • LowThu 12:10 PM · 0.34
  • HighThu 7:07 PM · 0.86
  • LowFri 1:05 AM · 0.30
  • HighFri 7:48 AM · 0.60

Monthly YOLO day

Friday, August 28 · 8.0

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. full · spring · tide range ~0.7 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 40%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • FL - Long Key State Park (Keys)

    sand dropoff · saved map · mid

    7.8

    Oceanfront camping with bonefish flats at the tent. Reserve far ahead. · camp-surf · GULF ATLAS! - FISH

    • sand dropoff on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish, Yellowtail snapper.
    structurespinwade
  • Seven Mile Bridge current

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    6.7

    Current seams. Permit and tarpon. Not a bonefish walk.

    • channel gut on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    skiffstructurespinfly
  • Vaca oceanside wrecks / patches

    wreck edge · field manual · deep

    6.6

    Crab on the wreck is a different permit game than the tailer on the flat.

    • wreck edge on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    skiffspinfly
  • Marathon bayside basins

    grass flat · public structure · mid

    4.9

    Vaca Key gauge. Backcountry light. Summer showers, then wait for the color to come back.

    • grass flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    skiffkayakflyspin

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Outgoing water

    9.9

    Thu 8:00 AMThu 2:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    9.9

    Thu 1:00 PMThu 9:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    8.0

    Thu 8:00 PMFri 3:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    8.0

    Fri 2:00 AMFri 9:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    9.9

    Fri 12:00 PMFri 3:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Bahia Honda State Park

    Florida State Parks

    Middle Keys bridge and oceanside. Adjacent FKNMS polygons are no-take — check the red rings.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

  • Sombrero Key

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Coffins Patch

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS

Why — and who

  • Tide is outgoing from NOAA 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay.
  • Mostly clear. Sky is workable.
  • Wind 11 mph ESE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • First quarter moon — neap tide range. Marsh and passes usually want the extra current of a spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

8.4

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

6.6

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

4.8

Thermal window

68°94°

Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

4.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

4.8

Thermal window

66°90°

Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

4.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.