On This Water

Florida · Middle Keys / Marathon

Bonefish should be the day — bayside basins until Vaca water turns.

Vaca Key gauge. Oceanside wrecks and patch reefs, bayside basins, Seven Mile Bridge current. Permit and tarpon more than bones.

  • This brief is for 2026-12-13, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
  • FKNMS no-take water in this box: Sombrero Key, Coffins Patch. The red polygons are the legal source — do not fish them.
7.6OF 10

Forecast

low confidence

Forecast brief for Sunday, December 13. Back to this morning

Morning line

Marathon 7.6 on Sunday, December 13. 11 mph ESE. Mostly clear. YOLO day is Tuesday, August 25. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-1.3-0.60.00.61.3HLHLHLHLSun 7 AMMon 7 AMTue 7 AMWed 7 AM
low slack · 0.72 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW11MPH

From ESE · gust 12

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clouds

Mostly clear

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

18% lit

Waxing crescent

mid range · 18%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 1.6 ft

low slack

0.72 ft modeled

Clock

NOAA 8723970

  • HighSun 8:00 AM · 0.72
  • LowSun 2:00 PM · -0.76
  • HighSun 8:00 PM · 0.78
  • LowMon 2:00 AM · -0.81
  • HighMon 8:00 AM · 0.82

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Monthly YOLO day

Tuesday, August 25 · 8.3

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waxing gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.4 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 49%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • FL - Long Key State Park (Keys)

    sand dropoff · saved map · mid

    6.7

    Oceanfront camping with bonefish flats at the tent. Reserve far ahead. · camp-surf · GULF ATLAS! - FISH

    • sand dropoff on a low slack tide is a secondary match.
    • In-play: Bonefish, Yellowtail snapper.
    structurespinwade
  • Seven Mile Bridge current

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    5.7

    Current seams. Permit and tarpon. Not a bonefish walk.

    • channel gut on a low slack tide is a workable match.
    skiffstructurespinfly
  • Vaca oceanside wrecks / patches

    wreck edge · field manual · deep

    5.4

    Crab on the wreck is a different permit game than the tailer on the flat.

    • wreck edge on a low slack tide is a workable match.
    skiffspinfly
  • Marathon bayside basins

    grass flat · public structure · mid

    4.2

    Vaca Key gauge. Backcountry light. Summer showers, then wait for the color to come back.

    • grass flat on a low slack tide is a secondary match.
    skiffkayakflyspin

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Outgoing water

    9.9

    Sun 9:00 AMSun 4:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    9.9

    Sun 3:00 PMSun 10:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    8.0

    Sun 9:00 PMMon 4:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    8.0

    Mon 3:00 AMMon 10:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    9.9

    Mon 9:00 AMMon 4:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Bahia Honda State Park

    Florida State Parks

    Middle Keys bridge and oceanside. Adjacent FKNMS polygons are no-take — check the red rings.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

  • Sombrero Key

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Coffins Patch

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS

Why — and who

  • Tide is low slack (modeled — NOAA 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay did not answer).
  • Mostly clear. Sky is workable.
  • Wind 11 mph ESE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • Waxing crescent moon — mid tide range. Marsh and passes usually want the extra current of a spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

7.3

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

5.5

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

3.7

Thermal window

68°94°

Off-season here.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

3.7

Thermal window

66°92°

Off-season here.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

3.7

Thermal window

66°90°

Off-season here.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.5

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

3.7

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.