On This Water

Florida · Middle Keys / Marathon

Bonefish should be the day — wait for the next push under the bridges.

Vaca Key gauge. Oceanside wrecks and patch reefs, bayside basins, Seven Mile Bridge current. Permit and tarpon more than bones.

  • This brief is for 2026-11-28, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
  • FKNMS no-take water in this box: Sombrero Key, Coffins Patch. The red polygons are the legal source — do not fish them.
7.6OF 10

Forecast

low confidence

Forecast brief for Saturday, November 28. Back to this morning

Morning line

Marathon 7.6 on Saturday, November 28. 8 mph ESE. Mostly clear. YOLO day is Friday, August 28. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-1.3-0.60.00.61.3HLHLHLHLSat 7 AMSun 7 AMMon 7 AMTue 7 AM
high slack · 0.68 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW8MPH

From ESE · gust 8

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clouds

Mostly clear

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

84% lit

Waning gibbous

mid range · 84%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 1.5 ft

high slack

0.68 ft modeled

Clock

NOAA 8723970

  • HighSat 7:00 AM · 0.69
  • LowSat 2:00 PM · -0.72
  • HighSat 8:00 PM · 0.76
  • LowSun 2:00 AM · -0.79
  • HighSun 8:00 AM · 0.81

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Monthly YOLO day

Friday, August 28 · 8.0

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. full · spring · tide range ~0.7 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 43%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • FL - Long Key State Park (Keys)

    sand dropoff · saved map · mid

    6.9

    Oceanfront camping with bonefish flats at the tent. Reserve far ahead. · camp-surf · GULF ATLAS! - FISH

    • sand dropoff on a high slack tide is a secondary match.
    • In-play: Bonefish, Hogfish, Yellowtail snapper.
    structurespinwade
  • Marathon bayside basins

    grass flat · public structure · mid

    5.3

    Vaca Key gauge. Backcountry light. Summer showers, then wait for the color to come back.

    • grass flat on a high slack tide is a workable match.
    skiffkayakflyspin
  • Seven Mile Bridge current

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    5.0

    Current seams. Permit and tarpon. Not a bonefish walk.

    • channel gut on a high slack tide is a secondary match.
    skiffstructurespinfly
  • Vaca oceanside wrecks / patches

    wreck edge · field manual · deep

    5.0

    Crab on the wreck is a different permit game than the tailer on the flat.

    • wreck edge on a high slack tide is a secondary match.
    skiffspinfly

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Outgoing water

    9.9

    Sat 9:00 AMSat 3:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    9.6

    Sat 3:00 PMSat 10:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    8.6

    Sat 9:00 PMSun 4:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    9.9

    Sun 3:00 AMSun 10:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    9.9

    Sun 9:00 AMSun 4:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Bahia Honda State Park

    Florida State Parks

    Middle Keys bridge and oceanside. Adjacent FKNMS polygons are no-take — check the red rings.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

  • Sombrero Key

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Coffins Patch

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS

Why — and who

  • Tide is high slack (modeled — NOAA 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay did not answer).
  • Mostly clear. Sky is workable.
  • Wind 8 mph ESE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • Waning gibbous moon — mid tide range. Marsh and passes usually want the extra current of a spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

7.3

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

5.5

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

5.5

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

3.7

Thermal window

68°94°

Off-season here.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

3.7

Thermal window

66°92°

Off-season here.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.5

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

3.7

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.