On This Water

Florida · Middle Keys / Marathon

Bonefish should be the day — Seven Mile current and the oceanside patches — permit and tarpon, not a bonefish morning.

Vaca Key gauge. Oceanside wrecks and patch reefs, bayside basins, Seven Mile Bridge current. Permit and tarpon more than bones.

  • This brief is for 2026-11-21, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
  • FKNMS no-take water in this box: Sombrero Key, Coffins Patch. The red polygons are the legal source — do not fish them.
8.8OF 10

Forecast

low confidence

Forecast brief for Saturday, November 21. Back to this morning

Morning line

Marathon 8.8 on Saturday, November 21. 6 mph ESE. Clear. YOLO day is Friday, August 28. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-1.0-0.5-0.00.50.9LHLHLHLHSat 7 AMSun 7 AMMon 7 AMTue 7 AM
incoming · -0.49 ftModeled M2 · not a gauge

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW6MPH

From ESE · gust 8

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clear

Clear

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

89% lit

Waxing gibbous

mid range · 89%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 1.4 ft

incoming

-0.49 ft modeled

Clock

NOAA 8723970

  • LowSat 6:00 AM · -0.73
  • HighSat 12:00 PM · 0.69
  • LowSat 7:00 PM · -0.68
  • HighSun 1:00 AM · 0.66
  • LowSun 7:00 AM · -0.63

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Monthly YOLO day

Friday, August 28 · 8.0

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. full · spring · tide range ~0.7 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 43%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

  • FL - Long Key State Park (Keys)

    sand dropoff · saved map · mid

    8.3

    Oceanfront camping with bonefish flats at the tent. Reserve far ahead. · camp-surf · GULF ATLAS! - FISH

    • sand dropoff on a incoming tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Bonefish, Hogfish, Yellowtail snapper.
    structurespinwade
  • Marathon bayside basins

    grass flat · public structure · mid

    7.0

    Vaca Key gauge. Backcountry light. Summer showers, then wait for the color to come back.

    • grass flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    skiffkayakflyspin
  • Vaca oceanside wrecks / patches

    wreck edge · field manual · deep

    6.5

    Crab on the wreck is a different permit game than the tailer on the flat.

    • wreck edge on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    skiffspinfly
  • Seven Mile Bridge current

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    6.1

    Current seams. Permit and tarpon. Not a bonefish walk.

    • channel gut on a incoming tide is a workable match.
    skiffstructurespinfly

When

  • Incoming water

    10.0

    Sat 8:00 AMSat 2:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    9.7

    Sat 2:00 PMSat 9:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    8.7

    Sat 8:00 PMSun 3:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    10.0

    Sun 2:00 AMSun 9:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    10.0

    Sun 8:00 AMSun 3:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Bahia Honda State Park

    Florida State Parks

    Middle Keys bridge and oceanside. Adjacent FKNMS polygons are no-take — check the red rings.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

  • Sombrero Key

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Coffins Patch

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS

Why — and who

  • Tide is incoming (modeled — the NOAA gauge did not answer).
  • Clear. Sky is workable.
  • Wind 6 mph ESE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • Waxing gibbous moon — mid tide range. Marsh and passes usually want the extra current of a spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

8.4

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

6.6

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

6.6

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

4.8

Thermal window

68°94°

Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

4.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

4.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 8 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.