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Florida · Middle Keys / Marathon

Permit should be the day — the bridge shadow and the falling wrecks.

Vaca Key gauge. Oceanside wrecks and patch reefs, bayside basins, Seven Mile Bridge current. Permit and tarpon more than bones.

  • ⚠ This brief is for 2026-09-15, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
  • ⚠ FKNMS no-take water in this box: Sombrero Key, Coffins Patch. The red polygons are the legal source — do not fish them.
8.5OF 10

Forecast

medium confidence

Forecast brief for Tuesday, September 15. Back to this morning

Morning line

Marathon 8.5 on Tuesday, September 15. 7 mph ESE. Clear. YOLO day is Friday, August 28. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-0.00.40.71.11.5LHLHLHLHMon 8 PMTue 8 PMWed 8 PMThu 8 PMFri 8 PM
outgoing · 0.63 ftNOAA hourly · ft MLLW

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW7MPH

From ESE · gust 10

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clear

Clear

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

14% lit

Waxing crescent

mid range · 14%

Water

No gauge

Water

—

48°92°

Today’s range 1.0 ft

outgoing

0.63 ft MLLW

Clock

NOAA 8723970

  • LowTue 10:07 AM · 0.26
  • HighTue 6:57 PM · 0.93
  • LowTue 9:47 PM · 0.79
  • HighWed 4:43 AM · 1.32
  • LowWed 10:57 AM · 0.20

Monthly YOLO day

Friday, August 28 · 8.0

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. full · spring · tide range ~0.7 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 43%

Stay or drive · Marathon vs Key WestOpen the calendarMorning dispatch

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

  • FL - Long Key State Park (Keys)

    sand dropoff · saved map · mid

    8.7

    Oceanfront camping with bonefish flats at the tent. Reserve far ahead. · camp-surf · GULF ATLAS! - FISH

    • — sand dropoff on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • — In-play: Permit, Tarpon, Hogfish, Yellowtail snapper.
    structurespinwade

  • Seven Mile Bridge current

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    8.4

    Current seams. Permit and tarpon. Not a bonefish walk.

    • — channel gut on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • — In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffstructurespinfly

  • Vaca oceanside wrecks / patches

    wreck edge · field manual · deep

    8.3

    Crab on the wreck is a different permit game than the tailer on the flat.

    • — wreck edge on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • — In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffspinfly

  • Marathon bayside basins

    grass flat · public structure · mid

    6.4

    Vaca Key gauge. Backcountry light. Summer showers, then wait for the color to come back.

    • — grass flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • — In-play: Tarpon.
    skiffkayakflyspin

When

  • Outgoing water

    10.0

    Tue 8:00 AM → Tue 12:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    9.7

    Tue 11:00 AM → Tue 8:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    8.7

    Tue 8:00 PM → Tue 11:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    8.7

    Tue 11:00 PM → Wed 6:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    10.0

    Wed 6:00 AM → Wed 1:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Bahia Honda State Park

    Florida State Parks

    Middle Keys bridge and oceanside. Adjacent FKNMS polygons are no-take — check the red rings.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

  • Sombrero Key

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS

  • Coffins Patch

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS

Why — and who

  • — Tide is outgoing from NOAA.
  • — Clear. Sky is workable.
  • — Wind 7 mph ESE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • — Waxing crescent moon — mid tide range. Marsh and passes usually want the extra current of a spring.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

8.4

Thermal window

—

66°90°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

8.4

Thermal window

—

66°90°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

6.6

Thermal window

—

68°94°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

6.6

Thermal window

—

66°92°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

4.8

Thermal window

—

64°92°

Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

5.8

Thermal window

—

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

—

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 8 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.