Tarpon
Megalops atlanticus
Thermal window
—
In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.
Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.
Florida · Middle Keys / Marathon
Permit should be the day — the bridge shadow and the falling wrecks.
Vaca Key gauge. Oceanside wrecks and patch reefs, bayside basins, Seven Mile Bridge current. Permit and tarpon more than bones.
- ⚠ This brief is for 2026-07-12, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
- ⚠ Snook are typically closed to harvest on the SE/Atlantic coast in this window. Verify FWC.
- ⚠ FKNMS no-take water in this box: Sombrero Key, Coffins Patch. The red polygons are the legal source — do not fish them.
Forecast
low confidence
Forecast brief for Sunday, July 12. Back to this morning
Morning line
Marathon 8.1 on Sunday, July 12. 13 mph SE. Mostly clear. YOLO day is Friday, August 28. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.
outgoing · -0.65 ftModeled M2 · not a gauge
Wind
OPEN-METEO
From SE · gust 15
Sky
OPEN-METEO
Clouds
Mostly clear
A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.
Moon
6% lit
Waning crescent
mid range · 6%
Water
No gauge
Water
—
Today’s range 1.3 ft
outgoing
-0.65 ft modeled
Clock
NOAA 8723970
- LowSun 8:00 AM · -0.65
- HighSun 2:00 PM · 0.61
- LowSun 8:00 PM · -0.57
- HighMon 3:00 AM · 0.56
- LowMon 9:00 AM · -0.54
Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.
Monthly YOLO day
Friday, August 28 · 8.0
Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. full · spring · tide range ~0.7 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 43%
Next two weeks
Pulling the 14-day strip…
Where
- 8.4
FL - Long Key State Park (Keys)
sand dropoff · saved map · mid
Oceanfront camping with bonefish flats at the tent. Reserve far ahead. · camp-surf · GULF ATLAS! - FISH
- — sand dropoff on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Permit, Tarpon, Hogfish, Yellowtail snapper.
structurespinwade - 8.1
Seven Mile Bridge current
channel gut · public structure · deep
Current seams. Permit and tarpon. Not a bonefish walk.
- — channel gut on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
skiffstructurespinfly - 8.0
Vaca oceanside wrecks / patches
wreck edge · field manual · deep
Crab on the wreck is a different permit game than the tailer on the flat.
- — wreck edge on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
skiffspinfly - 5.5
Marathon bayside basins
grass flat · public structure · mid
Vaca Key gauge. Backcountry light. Summer showers, then wait for the color to come back.
- — grass flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
- — In-play: Tarpon.
skiffkayakflyspin
When
Outgoing water
8.5Sun 8:00 AM → Sun 10:00 AM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Incoming water
8.5Sun 9:00 AM → Sun 4:00 PM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Outgoing water
9.4Sun 3:00 PM → Sun 10:00 PM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Incoming water
9.4Sun 10:00 PM → Mon 4:00 AM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Outgoing water
9.4Mon 4:00 AM → Mon 11:00 AM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Launch and beach access
County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.
Bahia Honda State Park
Florida State Parks
Middle Keys bridge and oceanside. Adjacent FKNMS polygons are no-take — check the red rings.
Official source
Why — and who
- — Tide is outgoing (modeled — the NOAA gauge did not answer).
- — Mostly clear. Sky is workable.
- — Wind 13 mph SE. Work the leeward shore. Fly gets harder.
- — Waning crescent moon — mid tide range. Marsh and passes usually want the extra current of a spring.
8.4
Permit
Trachinotus falcatus
Thermal window
—
In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.
Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.
Hogfish
Lachnolaimus maximus
Thermal window
—
In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.
Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.
Yellowtail snapper
Ocyurus chrysurus
Thermal window
—
In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.
Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.
Bonefish
Albula vulpes
Thermal window
—
Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.
Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.
Jack crevalle
Caranx hippos
Thermal window
—
Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.
Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.
Great barracuda
Sphyraena barracuda
Thermal window
—
Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.
Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.
Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.