Tarpon
Megalops atlanticus
Thermal window
—
In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.
Florida · Middle Keys / Marathon
Permit should be the day — Seven Mile current and the oceanside patches — permit and tarpon, not a bonefish morning.
Vaca Key gauge. Oceanside wrecks and patch reefs, bayside basins, Seven Mile Bridge current. Permit and tarpon more than bones.
- ⚠ This brief is for 2026-07-04, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
- ⚠ Snook are typically closed to harvest on the SE/Atlantic coast in this window. Verify FWC.
Forecast
low confidence
Forecast brief for Saturday, July 4. Back to this morning
Morning line
Marathon 8.1 on Saturday, July 4. 12 mph ESE. Mostly clear. YOLO day is Tuesday, August 25. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.
incoming · 0.69 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.
Wind
OPEN-METEO
From ESE · gust 13
Sky
OPEN-METEO
Clouds
Mostly clear
A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.
Moon
79% lit
Waning gibbous
mid range · 79%
Water
No gauge
Water
—
Today’s range 1.6 ft
incoming
0.69 ft modeled
Clock
NOAA 8723970
- LowSat 3:00 AM · -0.74
- HighSat 9:00 AM · 0.78
- LowSat 3:00 PM · -0.80
- HighSat 9:00 PM · 0.81
- LowSun 3:00 AM · -0.82
Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.
Monthly YOLO day
Tuesday, August 25 · 8.3
Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waxing gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.4 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 49%
Next two weeks
Pulling the 14-day strip…
Where
This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.
- 8.0
FL - Long Key State Park (Keys)
sand dropoff · saved map · mid
Oceanfront camping with bonefish flats at the tent. Reserve far ahead. · camp-surf · GULF ATLAS! - FISH
- — sand dropoff on a incoming tide is a workable match.
- — In-play: Permit, Tarpon, Hogfish, Yellowtail snapper.
structurespinwade - 7.7
Vaca oceanside wrecks / patches
wreck edge · field manual · deep
Crab on the wreck is a different permit game than the tailer on the flat.
- — wreck edge on a incoming tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
skiffspinfly - 7.2
Seven Mile Bridge current
channel gut · public structure · deep
Current seams. Permit and tarpon. Not a bonefish walk.
- — channel gut on a incoming tide is a workable match.
- — In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
skiffstructurespinfly - 6.7
Marathon bayside basins
grass flat · public structure · mid
Vaca Key gauge. Backcountry light. Summer showers, then wait for the color to come back.
- — grass flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Tarpon.
skiffkayakflyspin
When
When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.
Incoming water
9.0Sat 8:00 AM → Sat 11:00 AM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Outgoing water
7.7Sat 10:00 AM → Sat 5:00 PM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Incoming water
9.9Sat 4:00 PM → Sat 11:00 PM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Outgoing water
9.9Sat 10:00 PM → Sun 5:00 AM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Incoming water
9.9Sun 5:00 AM → Sun 11:00 AM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Launch and beach access
County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.
Bahia Honda State Park
Florida State Parks
Middle Keys bridge and oceanside. Adjacent FKNMS polygons are no-take — check the red rings.
Official source
Legal water
NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.
No FKNMS polygon in this box. Mainland Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Mexico, and the Bahamas are not Keys sanctuary closures.
Why — and who
- — Tide is incoming (modeled — NOAA 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay did not answer).
- — Mostly clear. Sky is workable.
- — Wind 12 mph ESE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
- — Waning gibbous moon — mid tide range. Marsh and passes usually want the extra current of a spring.
8.4
Permit
Trachinotus falcatus
Thermal window
—
In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.
Hogfish
Lachnolaimus maximus
Thermal window
—
In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.
Yellowtail snapper
Ocyurus chrysurus
Thermal window
—
In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.
Bonefish
Albula vulpes
Thermal window
—
Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.
Jack crevalle
Caranx hippos
Thermal window
—
Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.
Great barracuda
Sphyraena barracuda
Thermal window
—
Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.
Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.