Tarpon
Megalops atlanticus
Thermal window
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In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.
Florida · Middle Keys / Marathon
Permit should be the day — Seven Mile current and the oceanside patches — permit and tarpon, not a bonefish morning.
Vaca Key gauge. Oceanside wrecks and patch reefs, bayside basins, Seven Mile Bridge current. Permit and tarpon more than bones.
- ⚠ This brief is for 2026-05-11. No wind forecast that far out — score is tide, moon, and season. Not a copper day.
- ⚠ FKNMS no-take water in this box: Sombrero Key, Coffins Patch. The red polygons are the legal source — do not fish them.
Tide + moon
low confidence
Forecast brief for Monday, May 11. Back to this morning
Morning line
Marathon 8.7 on Monday, May 11 — tide, moon, and season only. No wind forecast that far out. YOLO day is Tuesday, August 25. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.
incoming · 0.41 ftNOAA hourly · ft MLLW
Wind
NWS
No wind reading
Sky
NWS
Sky not in
Sky not in
A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.
Moon
28% lit
Waning crescent
mid range · 28%
Water
No gauge
Water
—
Today’s range 0.6 ft
incoming
0.41 ft MLLW
Clock
NOAA 8723970
- HighMon 11:42 AM · 0.51
- LowMon 2:48 PM · 0.35
- HighMon 9:24 PM · 0.58
- LowTue 3:18 AM · 0.23
- HighTue 10:18 AM · 0.57
Monthly YOLO day
Tuesday, August 25 · 8.3
Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waxing gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.4 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 49%
Next two weeks
Pulling the 14-day strip…
Where
- 8.3
FL - Long Key State Park (Keys)
sand dropoff · saved map · mid
Oceanfront camping with bonefish flats at the tent. Reserve far ahead. · camp-surf · GULF ATLAS! - FISH
- — sand dropoff on a incoming tide is a workable match.
- — In-play: Permit, Tarpon, Bonefish, Hogfish, Yellowtail snapper.
structurespinwade - 7.9
Vaca oceanside wrecks / patches
wreck edge · field manual · deep
Crab on the wreck is a different permit game than the tailer on the flat.
- — wreck edge on a incoming tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
skiffspinfly - 7.7
Marathon bayside basins
grass flat · public structure · mid
Vaca Key gauge. Backcountry light. Summer showers, then wait for the color to come back.
- — grass flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Tarpon.
skiffkayakflyspin - 7.5
Seven Mile Bridge current
channel gut · public structure · deep
Current seams. Permit and tarpon. Not a bonefish walk.
- — channel gut on a incoming tide is a workable match.
- — In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
skiffstructurespinfly
When
Incoming water
9.4Mon 8:00 AM → Mon 11:00 AM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Outgoing water
8.0Mon 1:00 PM → Mon 4:00 PM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Incoming water
9.1Mon 4:00 PM → Mon 11:00 PM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Outgoing water
8.0Mon 11:00 PM → Tue 5:00 AM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Incoming water
9.4Tue 5:00 AM → Tue 12:00 PM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Launch and beach access
County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.
Bahia Honda State Park
Florida State Parks
Middle Keys bridge and oceanside. Adjacent FKNMS polygons are no-take — check the red rings.
Official source
Why — and who
- — Tide is incoming from NOAA.
- — Waning crescent moon — mid tide range. Marsh and passes usually want the extra current of a spring.
8.4
Bonefish
Albula vulpes
Thermal window
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In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.
Permit
Trachinotus falcatus
Thermal window
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In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.
Hogfish
Lachnolaimus maximus
Thermal window
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In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.
Yellowtail snapper
Ocyurus chrysurus
Thermal window
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In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.
Jack crevalle
Caranx hippos
Thermal window
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Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.
Great barracuda
Sphyraena barracuda
Thermal window
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Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.
Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.