Tarpon
Megalops atlanticus
Thermal window
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In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.
Florida · Middle Keys / Marathon
Permit should be the day — Seven Mile current and the oceanside patches — permit and tarpon, not a bonefish morning.
Vaca Key gauge. Oceanside wrecks and patch reefs, bayside basins, Seven Mile Bridge current. Permit and tarpon more than bones.
- ⚠ This brief is for 2026-05-10, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
- ⚠ FKNMS no-take water in this box: Sombrero Key, Coffins Patch. The red polygons are the legal source — do not fish them.
- Tide · NOAA 8723970
- NDBC SMKF1 quiet
- Red-tide check failed — not all-clear
- Sargassum check failed — not all-clear
- Water temp quiet
Forecast
medium confidence
Forecast brief for Sunday, May 10. Back to this morning
Morning line
Marathon 8.4 on Sunday, May 10. 10 mph ESE. Mostly clear. YOLO day is Friday, August 28. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.
incoming · 0.39 ft · drag or hover for the clockNOAA tide gauge 8723970 · Vaca Key, Florida Bay · ft MLLW · not a weather buoy
Wind
OPEN-METEO
From ESE · gust 11
Buoy
NDBC SMKF1
Quiet
Sombrero Key did not report. Witness only — not the tide clock.
Sky
OPEN-METEO
Clouds
Mostly clear
A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.
Moon
38% lit
Waning crescent
neap range · 38%
Water
No gauge
Water
—
Today’s range 0.8 ft
incoming
0.39 ft MLLW
Coast
No live coast layer
Red-tide check failed. That is not all-clear — open the agency page before you wade.
Sargassum check failed. Not a GPS pin. Not all-clear.
Clock
NOAA 8723970
- HighSun 11:24 AM · 0.47
- LowSun 1:30 PM · 0.41
- HighSun 8:12 PM · 0.64
- LowMon 2:24 AM · 0.08
- HighMon 11:42 AM · 0.51
Monthly YOLO day
Friday, August 28 · 8.0
Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. full · spring · tide range ~0.7 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 40%
Next two weeks
Pulling the 14-day strip…
Where
This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.
- 8.0
FL - Long Key State Park (Keys)
sand dropoff · saved map · mid
Oceanfront camping with bonefish flats at the tent. Reserve far ahead. · camp-surf · GULF ATLAS! - FISH
- — sand dropoff on a incoming tide is a workable match.
- — In-play: Permit, Tarpon, Bonefish, Hogfish, Yellowtail snapper.
structurespinwade - 7.7
Vaca oceanside wrecks / patches
wreck edge · field manual · deep
Crab on the wreck is a different permit game than the tailer on the flat.
- — wreck edge on a incoming tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
skiffspinfly - 7.2
Seven Mile Bridge current
channel gut · public structure · deep
Current seams. Permit and tarpon. Not a bonefish walk.
- — channel gut on a incoming tide is a workable match.
- — In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
skiffstructurespinfly - 6.7
Marathon bayside basins
grass flat · public structure · mid
Vaca Key gauge. Backcountry light. Summer showers, then wait for the color to come back.
- — grass flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Tarpon.
skiffkayakflyspin
When
When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. First light and last light are named when the clock is the story. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.
Incoming water
9.9Sun 8:00 AM → Sun 10:00 AM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Outgoing water
8.6Sun 1:00 PM → Sun 3:00 PM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Last light · incoming
9.6Sun 3:00 PM → Sun 10:00 PM
Last light on incoming water.
Last light · outgoing
8.6Sun 10:00 PM → Mon 4:00 AM
Last light on outgoing water.
First light · incoming
9.9Mon 4:00 AM → Mon 11:00 AM
First light on incoming water.
Launch and beach access
County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.
Bahia Honda State Park
Florida State Parks
Middle Keys bridge and oceanside. Adjacent FKNMS polygons are no-take — check the red rings.
Official source
Why — and who
- — Tide is incoming from NOAA 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay.
- — Mostly clear. Sky is workable.
- — Wind 10 mph ESE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
- — Waning crescent moon — neap tide range. Marsh and passes usually want the extra current of a spring.
8.4
Bonefish
Albula vulpes
Thermal window
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In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.
Permit
Trachinotus falcatus
Thermal window
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In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.
Hogfish
Lachnolaimus maximus
Thermal window
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In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.
Yellowtail snapper
Ocyurus chrysurus
Thermal window
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In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.
Jack crevalle
Caranx hippos
Thermal window
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Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.
Great barracuda
Sphyraena barracuda
Thermal window
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Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.
Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.