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Florida · Middle Keys / Marathon

Permit should be the day — the bridge shadow and the falling wrecks.

Vaca Key gauge. Oceanside wrecks and patch reefs, bayside basins, Seven Mile Bridge current. Permit and tarpon more than bones.

  • ⚠ This brief is for 2026-04-02. No wind forecast that far out — score is tide, moon, and season. Not a copper day.
  • ⚠ FKNMS no-take water in this box: Sombrero Key, Coffins Patch. The red polygons are the legal source — do not fish them.
8.8OF 10

Tide + moon

low confidence

Forecast brief for Thursday, April 2. Back to this morning

Morning line

Marathon 8.8 on Thursday, April 2 — tide, moon, and season only. No wind forecast that far out. YOLO day is Friday, August 28. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-0.9-0.40.00.50.9HLHLHLHLThu 8 AMFri 8 AMSat 8 AMSun 8 AM
outgoing · -0.12 ftModeled M2 · not a gauge

Wind

NWS

NESW—MPH

No wind reading

Sky

NWS

Sky not in

Sky not in

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

100% lit

Full

spring range · 100%

Water

No gauge

Water

—

48°92°

Today’s range 0.9 ft

outgoing

-0.12 ft modeled

Clock

NOAA 8723970

  • HighThu 4:00 AM · 0.45
  • LowThu 11:00 AM · -0.44
  • HighThu 5:00 PM · 0.44
  • LowThu 11:00 PM · -0.44
  • HighFri 6:00 AM · 0.44

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Monthly YOLO day

Friday, August 28 · 8.0

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. full · spring · tide range ~0.7 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 43%

Stay or drive · Marathon vs Key WestOpen the calendarMorning dispatch

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

  • FL - Long Key State Park (Keys)

    sand dropoff · saved map · mid

    8.7

    Oceanfront camping with bonefish flats at the tent. Reserve far ahead. · camp-surf · GULF ATLAS! - FISH

    • — sand dropoff on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • — In-play: Permit, Tarpon, Bonefish, Hogfish, Yellowtail snapper.
    structurespinwade

  • Seven Mile Bridge current

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    8.4

    Current seams. Permit and tarpon. Not a bonefish walk.

    • — channel gut on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • — In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffstructurespinfly

  • Vaca oceanside wrecks / patches

    wreck edge · field manual · deep

    8.3

    Crab on the wreck is a different permit game than the tailer on the flat.

    • — wreck edge on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • — In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffspinfly

  • Marathon bayside basins

    grass flat · public structure · mid

    6.4

    Vaca Key gauge. Backcountry light. Summer showers, then wait for the color to come back.

    • — grass flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • — In-play: Tarpon.
    skiffkayakflyspin

When

  • Outgoing water

    9.4

    Thu 8:00 AM → Thu 12:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    9.1

    Thu 12:00 PM → Thu 7:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    9.1

    Thu 6:00 PM → Fri 1:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    8.0

    Fri 1:00 AM → Fri 7:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    9.4

    Fri 7:00 AM → Fri 2:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Bahia Honda State Park

    Florida State Parks

    Middle Keys bridge and oceanside. Adjacent FKNMS polygons are no-take — check the red rings.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

  • Sombrero Key

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS

  • Coffins Patch

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS

Why — and who

  • — Tide is outgoing (modeled — the NOAA gauge did not answer).
  • — Full moon — spring tide range. Marsh and passes usually want the extra current of a spring.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

8.4

Thermal window

—

68°94°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

8.4

Thermal window

—

64°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

8.4

Thermal window

—

66°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

8.4

Thermal window

—

66°90°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

8.4

Thermal window

—

66°90°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

5.8

Thermal window

—

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

—

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.