On This Water

Florida · Middle Keys / Marathon

Permit should be the day — Seven Mile current and the oceanside patches — permit and tarpon, not a bonefish morning.

Vaca Key gauge. Oceanside wrecks and patch reefs, bayside basins, Seven Mile Bridge current. Permit and tarpon more than bones.

  • This brief is for 2026-03-31, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
  • FKNMS no-take water in this box: Sombrero Key, Coffins Patch. The red polygons are the legal source — do not fish them.
8.4OF 10

Forecast

medium confidence

Forecast brief for Tuesday, March 31. Back to this morning

Morning line

Marathon 8.4 on Tuesday, March 31. 6 mph SE. Overcast. YOLO day is Friday, August 28. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-0.4-0.10.20.60.9HLHLHLHLMon 8 PMTue 8 PMWed 8 PMThu 8 PMFri 8 PM
incoming · 0.20 ft · drag or hover for the clockNOAA tide gauge 8723970 · Vaca Key, Florida Bay · ft MLLW · not a weather buoy

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW6MPH

From SE · gust 6

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clouds

Overcast

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

96% lit

Waxing gibbous

spring range · 96%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 0.6 ft

incoming

0.20 ft MLLW

Clock

NOAA 8723970

  • HighTue 2:35 PM · 0.51
  • LowTue 6:20 PM · 0.05
  • HighWed 2:59 AM · 0.60
  • LowWed 6:33 AM · 0.21
  • HighWed 2:53 PM · 0.56

Monthly YOLO day

Friday, August 28 · 8.0

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. full · spring · tide range ~0.7 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 43%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • FL - Long Key State Park (Keys)

    sand dropoff · saved map · mid

    8.0

    Oceanfront camping with bonefish flats at the tent. Reserve far ahead. · camp-surf · GULF ATLAS! - FISH

    • sand dropoff on a incoming tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon, Bonefish, Hogfish, Yellowtail snapper.
    structurespinwade
  • Vaca oceanside wrecks / patches

    wreck edge · field manual · deep

    7.7

    Crab on the wreck is a different permit game than the tailer on the flat.

    • wreck edge on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffspinfly
  • Seven Mile Bridge current

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    7.2

    Current seams. Permit and tarpon. Not a bonefish walk.

    • channel gut on a incoming tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffstructurespinfly
  • Marathon bayside basins

    grass flat · public structure · mid

    6.7

    Vaca Key gauge. Backcountry light. Summer showers, then wait for the color to come back.

    • grass flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Tarpon.
    skiffkayakflyspin

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Incoming water

    9.9

    Tue 8:00 AMTue 4:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    9.6

    Tue 4:00 PMTue 8:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    8.6

    Tue 8:00 PMWed 5:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    9.9

    Wed 4:00 AMWed 8:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    9.9

    Wed 8:00 AMWed 4:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Bahia Honda State Park

    Florida State Parks

    Middle Keys bridge and oceanside. Adjacent FKNMS polygons are no-take — check the red rings.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

  • Sombrero Key

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Coffins Patch

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS

Why — and who

  • Tide is incoming from NOAA 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay.
  • Overcast. Sky is workable.
  • Wind 6 mph SE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • Waxing gibbous moon — spring tide range. Marsh and passes usually want the extra current of a spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

8.4

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

8.4

Thermal window

66°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

6.6

Thermal window

68°94°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

6.6

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

6.6

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

4.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.