Texas · Lower Laguna Madre

Redfish should be the day — sight-cast reds in inches on South Bay and the spoils.

The clear-water classroom. South Bay, spoil banks, Brazos Santiago. Sight-casting reds in inches. Often the warmest Texas winter water.

⚠ This brief is for 2028-05-04, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.

Tide · modeled — NOAA 8779770 quiet
NDBC PTIT2 quiet
No salinity probe on this desk
No river gauge on this desk
Red-tide check failed — not all-clear
Sargassum check failed — not all-clear
Glass · modeled
Water temp quiet

Forecast

low confidence

Forecast brief for Thursday, May 4. Back to this morning

Morning line

LLM 9.1 on Thursday, May 4. 9 mph S. Clear. YOLO day is Monday, August 31. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it

incoming · -0.11 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.

Wind

OPEN-METEO

From S · gust 18

Buoy

NDBC PTIT2

Quiet

Port Isabel did not report. Witness only — not the tide clock.

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clear

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Glass

Open-Meteo modeled

29.95 inHg

1014 mb · no 3-hour change yet

Modeled mean sea level. Not a dock barometer. The glass is not a bite.

Moon

77% lit

Waxing gibbous

mid range · 77%

Water

No gauge

Water

—

Today’s range 1.2 ft

incoming

-0.11 ft modeled

Coast

No live coast layer

Red-tide check failed. That is not all-clear — open the agency page before you wade.

Sargassum check failed. Not a GPS pin. Not all-clear.

Salinity / color
No USGS 00480 well on this desk. Do not borrow another bay’s river.

River

No gauge

No USGS discharge gauge on this desk. Wind and the table still tell the color story.

Wind vs table

No live gauge

—

No live gauge this hour — the printed tide is the forecast.

Clock

NOAA 8779770

LowThu 5:00 AM · -0.62
HighThu 11:00 AM · 0.59
LowThu 6:00 PM · -0.58
HighFri 12:00 AM · 0.57
LowFri 6:00 AM · -0.56

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Monthly YOLO day

Monday, August 31

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waning gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.0 ft · wind to 20 mph · Clouds · 9%

9.2

Stay or drive · LLM vs Baffin Open the calendar Morning dispatch

Next two weeks

Look at the water, not the table

Full calendar

Thu

Δ0.7ft

Fri

Δ0.6ft

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

South Bay
grass flat · field manual · skinny
9.0
USGS GNIS 1376184 (Cameron). Clear-water classroom. Inches of grass. Sight-casting reds. Deep-south snook on warm years.
USGS GNIS 1376184
- — grass flat on an incoming tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Redfish, Speckled trout, Snook.
skiffwadekayakflyspin
TX - Fred Stone County Park (Port Mansfield)
grass flat · saved map · mid
9.0
Camping + kayak launch at the LLM mecca. · flats · GULF ATLAS! - FISH
- — grass flat on an incoming tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Redfish, Speckled trout, Snook, Mangrove / gray snapper.
skiffkayakwadeflyspin
TX - Adolph Thomae Jr. Park (Arroyo City)
grass flat · saved map · mid
9.0
Camp + ramp to LLM west side. Snook begin. · flats · GULF ATLAS! - FISH
- — grass flat on an incoming tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Redfish, Speckled trout, Snook, Mangrove / gray snapper.
skiffkayakwadeflyspin
TX - Isla Blanca Park (South Padre)
grass flat · saved map · mid
9.0
Camp at island tip; launch to South Bay + Mexiquita. · flats · GULF ATLAS! - FISH
- — grass flat on an incoming tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Redfish, Speckled trout, Snook, Mangrove / gray snapper.
skiffkayakwadeflyspin
LLM mecca. Fred Stone County Park = camping + kayak launch o
grass flat · saved map · mid
9.0
LLM mecca. Fred Stone County Park = camping + kayak launch on the edge of the most famous flats water in Texas. · 4 - FLATS ZONES - NO WADE REQUIRED (green) · Texas coast — corridors, jetties, flats
- — grass flat on an incoming tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Redfish, Speckled trout, Snook, Mangrove / gray snapper.
structurespinwade
LLM west side - Green Island / Rattlesnake
grass flat · saved map · mid
9.0
Arroyo Colorado feeds this. Adolph Thomae Jr. Park = camp + ramp. Snook start appearing this far south. · 4 - FLATS ZONES - NO WADE REQUIRED (green) · Texas coast — corridors, jetties, flats
- — grass flat on an incoming tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Redfish, Speckled trout, Snook, Mangrove / gray snapper.
skiffkayakwadeflyspin

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. First light and last light are named when the clock is the story. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

Incoming water
10.0
Thu 8:00 AM → Thu 1:00 PM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Last light · outgoing
9.7
Thu 1:00 PM → Thu 7:00 PM
Last light on outgoing water.
Last light · incoming
9.7
Thu 7:00 PM → Fri 2:00 AM
Last light on incoming water.
First light · outgoing
10.0
Fri 1:00 AM → Fri 8:00 AM
First light on outgoing water.
First light · incoming
10.0
Fri 7:00 AM → Fri 2:00 PM
First light on incoming water.

Same fish

Nets

Dock

Same fish · Lower Laguna Madre · Speckled trout

17.3/ set

In the nets. 91% of sets had one.

6.1/ trip

Across the dock · 17.5 in. 74% of speckled trout-seeking parties had one.

Different units. The nets count what is in the water. The dock counts the fish they named, on the clipboard — not expanded landings.

Late file: 17.6/set · 5.0/trip. Flip the years to put that file in the tables.

Long record · Lower Laguna Madre · gill nets

135,364 fish in 1,701 overnight sets

Spring nets (April–June) 1982–2019. Random shoreline grids in this bay system — not a mark on your map. South Bay and Brazos Santiago. Not Baffin.

In the nets	Per set	Counted	Sets
Speckled trout	17.3	29,358	91%
Black drum	14.1	23,916	78%
Redfish	13.2	22,395	93%
Sheepshead	2.2	3,696	55%
Southern flounder	0.6	942	31%

TPWD still sets spring (Apr–Jun) and fall (Sep–Nov). This public file ends in 2019. It does not update with the tide.

BCO-DMO 1982–2019 Ask TPWD for years after 2019

Long record · Lower Laguna Madre · dock counts

57,063 fish on 12,578 interviews

High-use dock (May 15–Nov 20) 1991–2023. Public ramps and wet slips in this bay system — the bay they launched from, not a honey hole. South Bay and Brazos Santiago. Not Baffin.

Across the dock	Per trip	Counted	With fish
Speckled trout	6.1	28,245	74%
Red snappergulf	13.4	18,200	95%
Redfish	1.6	10,618	48%

TPWD still interviews year-round, 10:00–18:00, about 1,000 survey-days and 14,000 interviews a year. This public extract is targeting trips, 1991–2023. It does not update with the tide.

PLOS One 1991–2023 How the creel works Ask TPWD for expanded landings

Sabine Lake Galveston Bay Matagorda Bay Aransas Bay Corpus Christi Bay Upper Laguna MadreLower Laguna Madre

Launch and beach access

Cited to TPWD, Texas GLO beach-access plans, and NPS. 2WD/4WD is the county plan, not a guess.

Isla Blanca Park
Cameron County / GLO beach access
South end of SPI. Ramps, jetties, Brazos Santiago. County beach plan governs 2WD/4WD.
Official source
Andy Bowie Park
Cameron County / GLO beach access
North SPI. County beach plan. 2WD/4WD posted at the entrance.
Official source
Adolph Thomae Jr. County Park
Cameron County / TPWD-listed launch
Arroyo Colorado into the Lower Laguna. Ramp and park. The LLM classroom starts here.
Official source
Port Mansfield public ramps
Willacy County / TPWD-listed launch
Basin and cut. NOAA 8778490. Laguna skinny a mile inside.
Official source
Boca Chica / Beach Access 6
Cameron County beach-access plan / Texas GLO
South of SPI. County plan is the 2WD/4WD law here. Closures shift with SpaceX and storms — confirm before you drop a tire.
Official source

Legal water

No-take and closed water cited to the agency that owns it. Only the Keys box is FKNMS.

No FKNMS polygon in this box. Mainland Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Mexico, and the Bahamas are not Keys sanctuary closures.

Why — and who

— Tide is incoming (modeled — NOAA 8779770 Port Isabel did not answer).
— Clear. Sky is workable.
— Wind 9 mph S. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
— Waxing gibbous moon — mid tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.
— No USGS 00480 well on this desk. Do not read another bay’s river as this water.
— No USGS discharge gauge on this desk. Wind and the tide table still tell the color story.

Redfish

Sciaenops ocellatus

8.4

Thermal window

—

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Texas (Sep 1 2025–Aug 31 2026): 3/day, 20–28 in slot. One over 28 in per license year with a Red Drum Tag.

Speckled trout

Cynoscion nebulosus

8.4

Thermal window

—

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Texas: 3/day, 15–20 in slot. One over 28 in per license year with a Spotted Seatrout Tag (plus bonus). Soft mouth + slot = measure every fish.

Snook

Centropomus undecimalis

8.4

Thermal window

—

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Texas: 1/day, 24–28 in. Rare this far west — verify before you keep one.

Mangrove / gray snapper

Lutjanus griseus

8.4

Thermal window

—

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Texas: typically 12 in, 4/day under snapper rules — verify TPWD.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

5.8

Thermal window

—

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Regs citedTPWD Outdoor Annual · Sep 1, 2025–Aug 31, 2026 · rolls in 6 days. Texas bag and season roll every September 1. The stamp is the book we cited, not a license.