On This Water

Mexico · La Paz / Espíritu Santo

Roosterfish should be the day — Espíritu Santo and the rocky beaches — rooster, then El Bajo if the season is on.

Sea of Cortez. Espíritu Santo, El Bajo when the season is on, rooster along the rocky beaches. A town to sleep in. Tide is modeled. CONAPESCA license required.

  • This brief is for 2026-02-28, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
  • Mexico requires a CONAPESCA license. Sian Ka’an, Contoy, and Espíritu Santo are park or biosphere water — verify before you fish.
  • Tide · modeled — no NOAA gauge
  • No NDBC on this desk
  • Sargassum check failed — not all-clear
7.4OF 10

Forecast

low confidence

Forecast brief for Saturday, February 28. Back to this morning

Morning line

La Paz 7.4 on Saturday, February 28. 11 mph NNW. Mostly clear. YOLO day is Wednesday, August 26. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-1.8-0.9-0.00.91.7LHLHLHLHSat 5 AMSun 5 AMMon 5 AMTue 5 AM
incoming · 0.93 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW11MPH

From NNW · gust 11

Buoy

No station

None

No honest NDBC or C-MAN near this water. Do not invent a buoy.

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clouds

Mostly clear

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

88% lit

Waxing gibbous

mid range · 88%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 2.5 ft

incoming

0.93 ft modeled

Coast

No live coast layer

Sargassum check failed. Not a GPS pin. Not all-clear.

Clock

Modeled M2

  • LowSat 3:00 AM · -1.33
  • HighSat 10:00 AM · 1.27
  • LowSat 4:00 PM · -1.24
  • HighSat 10:00 PM · 1.21
  • LowSun 4:00 AM · -1.16

Mexico tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing. There is no NOAA gauge here.

Monthly YOLO day

Wednesday, August 26

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast — and it is a copper day. waxing gibbous · spring · tide range ~2.0 ft · wind to 13 mph · Clouds · 7%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • Espíritu Santo

    sand dropoff · public structure · mid

    6.7

    Named island north of La Paz. Parque Nacional. Rooster and a Cortez dorado. Park rules.

    • sand dropoff on a incoming tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Roosterfish.
    skiffspinfly

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. First light and last light are named when the clock is the story. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Incoming water

    9.9

    Sat 8:00 AMSat 11:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    9.6

    Sat 11:00 AMSat 6:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Last light · incoming

    9.6

    Sat 5:00 PMSun 12:00 AM

    Last light on incoming water.

  • Last light · outgoing

    8.6

    Sat 11:00 PMSun 6:00 AM

    Last light on outgoing water.

  • First light · incoming

    9.9

    Sun 5:00 AMSun 12:00 PM

    First light on incoming water.

Launch and beach access

Lodge towns and cited marinas. CONAPESCA license. Biosphere and park water is not a freelance wade.

  • La Paz marinas / malecón

    CONAPESCA / BCS

    Town water. Espíritu Santo is the run north. Park rules on the island.

    Official source

Legal water

No-take and closed water cited to the agency that owns it. Only the Keys box is FKNMS.

No FKNMS polygon in this box. Mainland Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Mexico, and the Bahamas are not Keys sanctuary closures.

Why — and who

  • Tide is incoming (modeled — no NOAA gauge on this water).
  • Mostly clear. Sky is workable.
  • Wind 11 mph NNW. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • Waxing gibbous moon — mid tide range. Marsh and passes usually want the extra current of a spring.

Roosterfish

Nematistius pectoralis

6.6

Thermal window

68°92°

Pacific / Sea of Cortez. Baja, not the Gulf. Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Mexico: verify CONAPESCA. East Cape and La Paz programs are typically catch-and-release.

Mahi-mahi

Coryphaena hippurus

2.0

Thermal window

66°92°

Bluewater. Weedlines, humps, and the edge — not this flat or marsh. Switch method to Offshore. Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 10/person, 60/vessel, 20 in fork. Texas: 3/day in federal waters under HMS/coastal rules — verify NOAA HMS and TPWD. Mexico: verify CONAPESCA. Bahamas: check current bag.

Tuna (blackfin / yellowfin)

Thunnus atlanticus / Thunnus albacares

2.0

Thermal window

66°92°

Bluewater. Weedlines, humps, and the edge — not this flat or marsh. Switch method to Offshore. Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Federal HMS rules. Yellowfin typically 27 in curved fork. Blackfin often more liberal — verify NOAA HMS and FWC/TPWD the morning you leave the inlet.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Incidental. Ciguatera is a real reason not to keep a big one.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

4.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Incidental. Not why you booked Ascension or East Cape.

Regs citedCONAPESCA recreational license · current CONAPESCA rules · rolls in 7 days. Sian Ka’an, Contoy, and Espíritu Santo are park or biosphere water. Roosterfish is Baja, not the Gulf.