On This Water

Florida · Lower Keys / Key West

Permit should be the day — the oceanside wrecks and the falling contentment flats.

Marquesas, Harbor Key, oceanside wrecks, the contentment of long runs. Permit and tarpon country. Summer showers can switch a flat on once it clears.

  • This brief is for 2027-02-21, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
  • FKNMS no-take water in this box: Western Sambo Ecological Reserve, Eastern Dry Rocks, Eastern Sambo (Research Only). The red polygons are the legal source — do not fish them.
6.6OF 10

Forecast

low confidence

Forecast brief for Sunday, February 21. Back to this morning

Morning line

Key West 6.6 on Sunday, February 21. 8 mph ESE. Mostly clear. YOLO day is Tuesday, August 25. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-0.8-0.4-0.00.40.8HLHLHLHLSun 7 AMMon 7 AMTue 7 AMWed 7 AM
outgoing · -0.23 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW8MPH

From ESE · gust 9

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clouds

Mostly clear

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

100% lit

Full

spring range · 100%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 0.7 ft

outgoing

-0.23 ft modeled

Clock

NOAA 8724580

  • HighSun 3:00 AM · 0.36
  • LowSun 10:00 AM · -0.36
  • HighSun 4:00 PM · 0.36
  • LowSun 11:00 PM · -0.36
  • HighMon 5:00 AM · 0.38

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Monthly YOLO day

Tuesday, August 25 · 9.1

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waxing gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.1 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 47%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • Marquesas

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    6.7

    Long run, fewer boats. Permit country. Weather window or you don't go.

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish.
    skifffly
  • Harbor Keys / Content Keys

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    6.7

    North of the island. Named banks. Incoming is the shot. Harbor Key Bank is USGS GNIS 299988 just north.

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish.
    skiffflyspin
  • Harbor Key Bank

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    6.7

    USGS GNIS 299988. The named bank north of the Content Keys. Incoming is the shot.

    USGS GNIS 299988

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish.
    skiffflyspin
  • Key West oceanside wrecks

    wreck edge · public structure · deep

    5.0

    The deep-edge permit game. Falling tide, first of the flood.

    • wreck edge on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Permit.
    • Offshore wreck or hump — secondary to the flat on this brief.
    skiffspinfly

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Outgoing water

    9.7

    Sun 8:00 AMSun 11:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    9.4

    Sun 11:00 AMSun 6:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    9.4

    Sun 6:00 PMMon 12:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    8.3

    Mon 12:00 AMMon 7:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    9.7

    Mon 6:00 AMMon 1:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Garrison Bight / Key West public ramps

    City of Key West

    The Lower Keys door. Marquesas is a weather-window run from here.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

  • Western Sambo Ecological Reserve

    Ecological Reserve — no take

    FKNMS GIS
  • Eastern Dry Rocks

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Eastern Sambo (Research Only)

    Research Only — closed except permitted science

    FKNMS GIS
  • Rock Key

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Sand Key

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS

Why — and who

  • Tide is outgoing (modeled — NOAA 8724580 Key West did not answer).
  • Mostly clear. Clouds steal the window on bones and permit.
  • Wind 8 mph ESE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • Full moon — spring tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

8.4

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

6.6

Thermal window

66°92°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

6.6

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

4.8

Thermal window

68°94°

Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

4.8

Thermal window

66°90°

Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Mutton snapper

Lutjanus analis

4.8

Thermal window

66°90°

Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 18 in, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

4.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.