On This Water

Florida · Lower Keys / Key West

Permit should be the day — Marquesas and Harbor Key on a clean incoming — permit country.

Marquesas, Harbor Key, oceanside wrecks, the contentment of long runs. Permit and tarpon country. Summer showers can switch a flat on once it clears.

  • This brief is for 2027-02-07, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
  • FKNMS no-take water in this box: Western Sambo Ecological Reserve, Eastern Dry Rocks, Eastern Sambo (Research Only). The red polygons are the legal source — do not fish them.
  • Tide · NOAA 8724580
  • NDBC SANF1 quiet
  • Red-tide check failed — not all-clear
  • Sargassum check failed — not all-clear
  • Water temp quiet
6.8OF 10

Forecast

medium confidence

Forecast brief for Sunday, February 7. Back to this morning

Morning line

Key West 6.8 on Sunday, February 7. 7 mph NE. Mostly clear. YOLO day is Tuesday, August 25. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-0.60.00.61.31.9HLHLHLHLSat 7 PMSun 7 PMMon 7 PMTue 7 PMWed 7 PM
incoming · 0.56 ft · drag or hover for the clockNOAA tide gauge 8724580 · Key West · ft MLLW · not a weather buoy

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW7MPH

From NE · gust 8

Buoy

NDBC SANF1

Quiet

Sand Key did not report. Witness only — not the tide clock.

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clouds

Mostly clear

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

1% lit

Waxing crescent

spring range · 1%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 1.8 ft

incoming

0.56 ft MLLW

Coast

No live coast layer

Red-tide check failed. That is not all-clear — open the agency page before you wade.

Sargassum check failed. Not a GPS pin. Not all-clear.

Clock

NOAA 8724580

  • HighSun 10:40 AM · 1.05
  • LowSun 3:51 PM · 0.02
  • HighSun 10:30 PM · 1.52
  • LowMon 4:37 AM · -0.23
  • HighMon 11:07 AM · 1.15

Monthly YOLO day

Tuesday, August 25

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waxing gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.1 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 47%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • Marquesas

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    7.3

    Long run, fewer boats. Permit country. Weather window or you don't go.

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish.
    skifffly
  • Harbor Keys / Content Keys

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    7.3

    North of the island. Named banks. Incoming is the shot. Harbor Key Bank is USGS GNIS 299988 just north.

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish.
    skiffflyspin
  • Harbor Key Bank

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    7.3

    USGS GNIS 299988. The named bank north of the Content Keys. Incoming is the shot.

    USGS GNIS 299988

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish.
    skiffflyspin
  • Key West oceanside wrecks

    wreck edge · public structure · deep

    4.7

    The deep-edge permit game. Falling tide, first of the flood.

    • wreck edge on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Permit.
    • Offshore wreck or hump — secondary to the flat on this brief.
    skiffspinfly

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. First light and last light are named when the clock is the story. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Incoming water

    9.7

    Sun 8:00 AMSun 1:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    9.4

    Sun 12:00 PMSun 6:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Last light · incoming

    9.4

    Sun 5:00 PMMon 12:00 AM

    Last light on incoming water.

  • First light · outgoing

    8.3

    Mon 12:00 AMMon 6:00 AM

    First light on outgoing water.

  • First light · incoming

    9.7

    Mon 6:00 AMMon 1:00 PM

    First light on incoming water.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Garrison Bight / Key West public ramps

    City of Key West

    The Lower Keys door. Marquesas is a weather-window run from here.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

  • Western Sambo Ecological Reserve

    Ecological Reserve — no take

    FKNMS GIS
  • Eastern Dry Rocks

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Eastern Sambo (Research Only)

    Research Only — closed except permitted science

    FKNMS GIS
  • Rock Key

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Sand Key

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS

Why — and who

  • Tide is incoming from NOAA 8724580 Key West.
  • Mostly clear. Clouds steal the window on bones and permit.
  • Wind 7 mph NE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • Waxing crescent moon — spring tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

8.4

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

6.6

Thermal window

66°92°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

6.6

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

4.8

Thermal window

68°94°

Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

4.8

Thermal window

66°90°

Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Mutton snapper

Lutjanus analis

4.8

Thermal window

66°90°

Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 18 in, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

4.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.