On This Water

Florida · Lower Keys / Key West

Bonefish should be the day — Marquesas and Harbor Key on a clean incoming — permit country.

Marquesas, Harbor Key, oceanside wrecks, the contentment of long runs. Permit and tarpon country. Summer showers can switch a flat on once it clears.

  • This brief is for 2026-11-01, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
  • FKNMS no-take water in this box: Western Sambo Ecological Reserve, Eastern Dry Rocks, Eastern Sambo (Research Only). The red polygons are the legal source — do not fish them.
8.6OF 10

Forecast

low confidence

Forecast brief for Sunday, November 1. Back to this morning

Morning line

Key West 8.6 on Sunday, November 1. 6 mph ENE. Clear. YOLO day is Monday, August 31. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-1.1-0.50.00.51.1LHLHLHLHSun 7 AMMon 7 AMTue 7 AMWed 7 AM
incoming · 0.34 ftModeled M2 · not a gauge

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW6MPH

From ENE · gust 9

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clear

Clear

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

61% lit

Waning gibbous

neap range · 61%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 1.5 ft

incoming

0.34 ft modeled

Clock

NOAA 8724580

  • LowSun 3:00 AM · -0.74
  • HighSun 9:00 AM · 0.75
  • LowSun 3:00 PM · -0.76
  • HighSun 9:00 PM · 0.75
  • LowMon 4:00 AM · -0.76

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Monthly YOLO day

Monday, August 31 · 9.1

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waning gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.7 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 59%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

  • Marquesas

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    7.7

    Long run, fewer boats. Permit country. Weather window or you don't go.

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    skifffly
  • Harbor Keys / Content Keys

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    7.7

    North of the island. Named banks. Incoming is the shot. Harbor Key Bank is USGS GNIS 299988 just north.

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    skiffflyspin
  • Harbor Key Bank

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    7.7

    USGS GNIS 299988. The named bank north of the Content Keys. Incoming is the shot.

    USGS GNIS 299988

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    skiffflyspin
  • Key West oceanside wrecks

    wreck edge · public structure · deep

    4.2

    The deep-edge permit game. Falling tide, first of the flood.

    • wreck edge on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • Offshore wreck or hump — secondary to the flat on this brief.
    skiffspinfly

When

  • Incoming water

    10.0

    Sun 7:00 AMSun 11:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    10.0

    Sun 10:00 AMSun 5:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    9.7

    Sun 4:00 PMSun 11:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    8.7

    Sun 11:00 PMMon 5:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    10.0

    Mon 5:00 AMMon 12:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Garrison Bight / Key West public ramps

    City of Key West

    The Lower Keys door. Marquesas is a weather-window run from here.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

  • Western Sambo Ecological Reserve

    Ecological Reserve — no take

    FKNMS GIS
  • Eastern Dry Rocks

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Eastern Sambo (Research Only)

    Research Only — closed except permitted science

    FKNMS GIS
  • Rock Key

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Sand Key

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS

Why — and who

  • Tide is incoming (modeled — the NOAA gauge did not answer).
  • Clear. Sky is workable.
  • Wind 6 mph ENE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • Waning gibbous moon — neap tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

8.4

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

6.6

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

6.6

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

4.8

Thermal window

68°94°

Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

4.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Mutton snapper

Lutjanus analis

4.8

Thermal window

66°90°

Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 18 in, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

4.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 8 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.