Hogfish
Lachnolaimus maximus
Thermal window
—
In peak season for this water.
Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.
Florida · Lower Keys / Key West
Permit are the hunt — make the run or wait; slack out here is expensive.
Marquesas, Harbor Key, oceanside wrecks, the contentment of long runs. Permit and tarpon country. Summer showers can switch a flat on once it clears.
- ⚠ This brief is for 2026-10-08. No wind forecast that far out — score is tide, moon, and season. Not a copper day.
- Tide · modeled — NOAA 8724580 quiet
- NDBC SANF1 quiet
- Red-tide check failed — not all-clear
- Sargassum check failed — not all-clear
- Water temp quiet
Tide + moon
low confidence
Forecast brief for Thursday, October 8. Back to this morning
Morning line
Key West 7.6 on Thursday, October 8 — tide, moon, and season only. No wind forecast that far out. YOLO day is Tuesday, August 25. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.
high slack · -0.57 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.
Wind
NWS
No wind reading
Buoy
NDBC SANF1
Quiet
Sand Key did not report. Witness only — not the tide clock.
Sky
NWS
Sky not in
Sky not in
A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.
Moon
9% lit
Waning crescent
mid range · 9%
Water
No gauge
Water
—
Today’s range 1.1 ft
high slack
-0.57 ft modeled
Coast
No live coast layer
Red-tide check failed. That is not all-clear — open the agency page before you wade.
Sargassum check failed. Not a GPS pin. Not all-clear.
Clock
NOAA 8724580
- LowThu 8:00 AM · -0.57
- HighThu 2:00 PM · 0.56
- LowThu 8:00 PM · -0.54
- HighFri 2:00 AM · 0.52
- LowFri 8:00 AM · -0.48
Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.
Monthly YOLO day
Tuesday, August 25
Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waxing gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.1 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 47%
Next two weeks
Pulling the 14-day strip…
Where
This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.
- 7.7
Marquesas
hard flat · field manual · skinny
Long run, fewer boats. Permit country. Weather window or you don't go.
- — hard flat on a high slack tide is a workable match.
- — In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Tarpon.
skifffly - 7.7
Harbor Keys / Content Keys
hard flat · public structure · skinny
North of the island. Named banks. Incoming is the shot. Harbor Key Bank is USGS GNIS 299988 just north.
- — hard flat on a high slack tide is a workable match.
- — In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Tarpon.
skiffflyspin - 7.7
Harbor Key Bank
hard flat · public structure · skinny
USGS GNIS 299988. The named bank north of the Content Keys. Incoming is the shot.
USGS GNIS 299988
- — hard flat on a high slack tide is a workable match.
- — In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Tarpon.
skiffflyspin - 4.2
Key West oceanside wrecks
wreck edge · public structure · deep
The deep-edge permit game. Falling tide, first of the flood.
- — wreck edge on a high slack tide is a secondary match.
- — In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
- — Offshore wreck or hump — secondary to the flat on this brief.
skiffspinfly
When
When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. First light and last light are named when the clock is the story. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.
Incoming water
9.4Thu 9:00 AM → Thu 4:00 PM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Last light · outgoing
9.1Thu 3:00 PM → Thu 10:00 PM
Last light on outgoing water.
Last light · incoming
8.0Thu 9:00 PM → Fri 4:00 AM
Last light on incoming water.
First light · outgoing
9.4Fri 3:00 AM → Fri 10:00 AM
First light on outgoing water.
Incoming water
9.4Fri 10:00 AM → Fri 4:00 PM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Launch and beach access
County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.
Garrison Bight / Key West public ramps
City of Key West
The Lower Keys door. Marquesas is a weather-window run from here.
Official source
Legal water
NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.
No FKNMS polygon in this box. Mainland Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Mexico, and the Bahamas are not Keys sanctuary closures.
Why — and who
- — Tide is high slack (modeled — NOAA 8724580 Key West did not answer).
- — Waning crescent moon — mid tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.
7.3
Tarpon
Megalops atlanticus
Thermal window
—
Present, not peak.
Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.
Bonefish
Albula vulpes
Thermal window
—
Present, not peak.
Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.
Permit
Trachinotus falcatus
Thermal window
—
Present, not peak.
Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.
Yellowtail snapper
Ocyurus chrysurus
Thermal window
—
Present, not peak.
Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.
Mutton snapper
Lutjanus analis
Thermal window
—
Present, not peak.
Florida: typically 18 in, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.
Jack crevalle
Caranx hippos
Thermal window
—
Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak.
Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.
Great barracuda
Sphyraena barracuda
Thermal window
—
Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak.
Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.
Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.