On This Water

Florida · Lower Keys / Key West

Permit should be the day — Marquesas and Harbor Key on a clean incoming — permit country.

Marquesas, Harbor Key, oceanside wrecks, the contentment of long runs. Permit and tarpon country. Summer showers can switch a flat on once it clears.

  • This brief is for 2026-10-05, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
  • FKNMS no-take water in this box: Western Sambo Ecological Reserve, Eastern Dry Rocks, Eastern Sambo (Research Only). The red polygons are the legal source — do not fish them.
7.0OF 10

Forecast

low confidence

Forecast brief for Monday, October 5. Back to this morning

Morning line

Key West 7.0 on Monday, October 5. 12 mph SSE. Mostly clear. YOLO day is Monday, August 31. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-1.0-0.50.00.51.0LHLHLHLHMon 8 AMTue 8 AMWed 8 AMThu 8 AM
incoming · -0.24 ftModeled M2 · not a gauge

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW12MPH

From SSE · gust 13

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clouds

Mostly clear

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

34% lit

Waning crescent

neap range · 34%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 1.5 ft

incoming

-0.24 ft modeled

Clock

NOAA 8724580

  • LowMon 6:00 AM · -0.75
  • HighMon 12:00 PM · 0.76
  • LowMon 6:00 PM · -0.75
  • HighTue 12:00 AM · 0.74
  • LowTue 6:00 AM · -0.73

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Monthly YOLO day

Monday, August 31 · 9.1

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waning gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.7 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 59%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

  • Marquesas

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    7.9

    Long run, fewer boats. Permit country. Weather window or you don't go.

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Tarpon.
    skifffly
  • Harbor Keys / Content Keys

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    7.9

    North of the island. Named banks. Incoming is the shot. Harbor Key Bank is USGS GNIS 299988 just north.

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Tarpon.
    skiffflyspin
  • Harbor Key Bank

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    7.9

    USGS GNIS 299988. The named bank north of the Content Keys. Incoming is the shot.

    USGS GNIS 299988

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Tarpon.
    skiffflyspin
  • Key West oceanside wrecks

    wreck edge · public structure · deep

    5.4

    The deep-edge permit game. Falling tide, first of the flood.

    • wreck edge on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    • Offshore wreck or hump — secondary to the flat on this brief.
    skiffspinfly

When

  • Incoming water

    9.7

    Mon 8:00 AMMon 2:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    9.4

    Mon 1:00 PMMon 8:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    9.4

    Mon 7:00 PMTue 2:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    9.7

    Tue 1:00 AMTue 8:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    9.7

    Tue 7:00 AMTue 2:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Garrison Bight / Key West public ramps

    City of Key West

    The Lower Keys door. Marquesas is a weather-window run from here.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

  • Western Sambo Ecological Reserve

    Ecological Reserve — no take

    FKNMS GIS
  • Eastern Dry Rocks

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Eastern Sambo (Research Only)

    Research Only — closed except permitted science

    FKNMS GIS
  • Rock Key

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Sand Key

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS

Why — and who

  • Tide is incoming (modeled — the NOAA gauge did not answer).
  • Mostly clear. Clouds steal the window on bones and permit.
  • Wind 12 mph SSE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • Waning crescent moon — neap tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

8.4

Thermal window

66°90°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

6.6

Thermal window

68°94°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

6.6

Thermal window

64°92°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

6.6

Thermal window

66°92°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

6.6

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Mutton snapper

Lutjanus analis

6.6

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 18 in, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

5.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.