Hogfish
Lachnolaimus maximus
Thermal window
—
In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.
Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.
Florida · Lower Keys / Key West
Permit should be the day — the oceanside wrecks and the falling contentment flats.
Marquesas, Harbor Key, oceanside wrecks, the contentment of long runs. Permit and tarpon country. Summer showers can switch a flat on once it clears.
- ⚠ This brief is for 2026-09-16, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
- ⚠ FKNMS no-take water in this box: Western Sambo Ecological Reserve, Eastern Dry Rocks, Eastern Sambo (Research Only). The red polygons are the legal source — do not fish them.
Forecast
medium confidence
Forecast brief for Wednesday, September 16. Back to this morning
Morning line
Key West 8.1 on Wednesday, September 16. 8 mph ESE. Clear. YOLO day is Monday, August 31. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.
outgoing · 0.44 ftNOAA hourly · ft MLLW
Wind
OPEN-METEO
From ESE · gust 11
Sky
OPEN-METEO
Clear
Clear
A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.
Moon
23% lit
Waxing crescent
mid range · 23%
Water
No gauge
Water
—
Today’s range 1.7 ft
outgoing
0.44 ft MLLW
Clock
NOAA 8724580
- LowWed 8:03 AM · 0.44
- HighWed 2:25 PM · 1.38
- LowWed 7:09 PM · 0.95
- HighThu 1:54 AM · 2.06
- LowThu 9:04 AM · 0.52
Monthly YOLO day
Monday, August 31 · 9.1
Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waning gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.7 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 56%
Next two weeks
Pulling the 14-day strip…
Where
- 7.7
Marquesas
hard flat · field manual · skinny
Long run, fewer boats. Permit country. Weather window or you don't go.
- — hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
- — In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
skifffly - 7.7
Harbor Keys / Content Keys
hard flat · public structure · skinny
North of the island. Named banks. Incoming is the shot. Harbor Key Bank is USGS GNIS 299988 just north.
- — hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
- — In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
skiffflyspin - 7.7
Harbor Key Bank
hard flat · public structure · skinny
USGS GNIS 299988. The named bank north of the Content Keys. Incoming is the shot.
USGS GNIS 299988
- — hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
- — In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
skiffflyspin - 5.8
Key West oceanside wrecks
wreck edge · public structure · deep
The deep-edge permit game. Falling tide, first of the flood.
- — wreck edge on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
- — Offshore wreck or hump — secondary to the flat on this brief.
skiffspinfly
When
Outgoing water
10.0Wed 8:00 AM → Wed 10:00 AM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Incoming water
10.0Wed 9:00 AM → Wed 4:00 PM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Outgoing water
9.7Wed 4:00 PM → Wed 9:00 PM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Incoming water
8.7Wed 8:00 PM → Thu 4:00 AM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Outgoing water
10.0Thu 3:00 AM → Thu 11:00 AM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Launch and beach access
County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.
Garrison Bight / Key West public ramps
City of Key West
The Lower Keys door. Marquesas is a weather-window run from here.
Official source
Legal water
NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.
Western Sambo Ecological Reserve
Ecological Reserve — no take
FKNMS GISEastern Dry Rocks
Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)
FKNMS GISEastern Sambo (Research Only)
Research Only — closed except permitted science
FKNMS GISRock Key
Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)
FKNMS GISSand Key
Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)
FKNMS GIS
Why — and who
- — Tide is outgoing from NOAA.
- — Clear. Sky is workable.
- — Wind 8 mph ESE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
- — Waxing crescent moon — mid tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.
8.4
Yellowtail snapper
Ocyurus chrysurus
Thermal window
—
In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.
Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.
Tarpon
Megalops atlanticus
Thermal window
—
Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.
Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.
Permit
Trachinotus falcatus
Thermal window
—
Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.
Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.
Mutton snapper
Lutjanus analis
Thermal window
—
Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.
Florida: typically 18 in, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.
Bonefish
Albula vulpes
Thermal window
—
Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.
Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.
Jack crevalle
Caranx hippos
Thermal window
—
Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.
Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.
Great barracuda
Sphyraena barracuda
Thermal window
—
Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.
Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.
Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 8 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.