On This Water

Florida · Lower Keys / Key West

Permit should be the day — the oceanside wrecks and the falling contentment flats.

Marquesas, Harbor Key, oceanside wrecks, the contentment of long runs. Permit and tarpon country. Summer showers can switch a flat on once it clears.

  • This brief is for 2026-09-05, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
  • FKNMS no-take water in this box: Western Sambo Ecological Reserve, Eastern Dry Rocks, Eastern Sambo (Research Only). The red polygons are the legal source — do not fish them.
6.6OF 10

Forecast

medium confidence

Forecast brief for Saturday, September 5. Back to this morning

Morning line

Key West 6.6 on Saturday, September 5. 5 mph ESE. Mostly clear. YOLO day is Monday, August 31. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-0.10.61.32.02.7LHLHLHLHFri 8 PMSat 8 PMSun 8 PMMon 8 PMTue 8 PM
outgoing · 1.27 ftNOAA hourly · ft MLLW

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW5MPH

From ESE · gust 5

Sky

23% rain

Clouds

Mostly clear

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

39% lit

Waning crescent

neap range · 39%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 1.8 ft

outgoing

1.27 ft MLLW

Clock

NOAA 8724580

  • LowSat 11:53 AM · 0.28
  • HighSat 7:12 PM · 1.10
  • LowSat 10:20 PM · 0.95
  • HighSun 5:48 AM · 2.15
  • LowSun 1:07 PM · 0.27

Monthly YOLO day

Monday, August 31 · 9.1

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waning gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.7 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 56%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

  • Marquesas

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    6.7

    Long run, fewer boats. Permit country. Weather window or you don't go.

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    skifffly
  • Harbor Keys / Content Keys

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    6.7

    North of the island. Named banks. Incoming is the shot. Harbor Key Bank is USGS GNIS 299988 just north.

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffflyspin
  • Harbor Key Bank

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    6.7

    USGS GNIS 299988. The named bank north of the Content Keys. Incoming is the shot.

    USGS GNIS 299988

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffflyspin
  • Key West oceanside wrecks

    wreck edge · public structure · deep

    5.6

    The deep-edge permit game. Falling tide, first of the flood.

    • wreck edge on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    • Offshore wreck or hump — secondary to the flat on this brief.
    skiffspinfly

When

  • Outgoing water

    9.7

    Sat 8:00 AMSat 2:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    9.4

    Sat 1:00 PMSat 9:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    8.3

    Sat 9:00 PMSun 12:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    9.7

    Sun 12:00 AMSun 8:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    9.7

    Sun 7:00 AMSun 3:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Garrison Bight / Key West public ramps

    City of Key West

    The Lower Keys door. Marquesas is a weather-window run from here.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

  • Western Sambo Ecological Reserve

    Ecological Reserve — no take

    FKNMS GIS
  • Eastern Dry Rocks

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Eastern Sambo (Research Only)

    Research Only — closed except permitted science

    FKNMS GIS
  • Rock Key

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Sand Key

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS

Why — and who

  • Tide is outgoing from NOAA.
  • Mostly clear. Clouds steal the window on bones and permit.
  • Wind 5 mph ESE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • Waning crescent moon — neap tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

8.4

Thermal window

66°90°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

8.4

Thermal window

66°90°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

6.6

Thermal window

68°94°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

6.6

Thermal window

66°92°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Mutton snapper

Lutjanus analis

6.6

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 18 in, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

4.8

Thermal window

64°92°

Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

5.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 8 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.