On This Water

Florida · Lower Keys / Key West

Permit should be the day — Marquesas and Harbor Key on a clean incoming — permit country.

Marquesas, Harbor Key, oceanside wrecks, the contentment of long runs. Permit and tarpon country. Summer showers can switch a flat on once it clears.

  • This brief is for 2026-08-29, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
  • Thunderstorms in the forecast. Lightning is a stay-tied call. The score is not a safety brief.
  • Snook are typically closed to harvest on the SE/Atlantic coast in this window. Verify FWC.
  • FKNMS no-take water in this box: Western Sambo Ecological Reserve, Eastern Dry Rocks, Eastern Sambo (Research Only). The red polygons are the legal source — do not fish them.
4.5OF 10

Forecast

medium confidence

Forecast brief for Saturday, August 29. Back to this morning

Morning line

Key West 4.5 on Saturday, August 29. 10 mph E. Thunderstorms · 29%. YOLO day is Monday, August 31. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-0.10.51.21.82.4HLHLHLHLFri 8 PMSat 8 PMSun 8 PMMon 8 PMTue 8 PM
incoming · 1.29 ftNOAA hourly · ft MLLW

Wind

NWS

NESW10MPH

From E

Sky

29% rain

Storms

Thunderstorms · 29%

Lightning is a stay-tied call.

Moon

98% lit

Waning gibbous

spring range · 98%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 1.7 ft

incoming

1.29 ft MLLW

Clock

NOAA 8724580

  • HighSat 11:26 AM · 2.10
  • LowSat 5:17 PM · 0.43
  • HighSat 11:48 PM · 1.87
  • LowSun 5:25 AM · 0.38
  • HighSun 12:09 PM · 1.98

Monthly YOLO day

Monday, August 31 · 9.1

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waning gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.7 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 56%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

  • Marquesas

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    5.7

    Long run, fewer boats. Permit country. Weather window or you don't go.

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • Thunderstorms — this mark is a stay-tied call, not a window.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    skifffly
  • Harbor Keys / Content Keys

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    5.7

    North of the island. Named banks. Incoming is the shot. Harbor Key Bank is USGS GNIS 299988 just north.

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • Thunderstorms — this mark is a stay-tied call, not a window.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffflyspin
  • Harbor Key Bank

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    5.7

    USGS GNIS 299988. The named bank north of the Content Keys. Incoming is the shot.

    USGS GNIS 299988

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • Thunderstorms — this mark is a stay-tied call, not a window.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffflyspin
  • Key West oceanside wrecks

    wreck edge · public structure · deep

    3.8

    The deep-edge permit game. Falling tide, first of the flood.

    • wreck edge on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • Thunderstorms — this mark is a stay-tied call, not a window.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    • Offshore wreck or hump — secondary to the flat on this brief.
    skiffspinfly

When

  • Incoming water

    8.2

    Sat 8:00 AMSat 1:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    9.1

    Sat 1:00 PMSat 7:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    9.1

    Sat 6:00 PMSun 2:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    9.1

    Sun 1:00 AMSun 7:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    9.1

    Sun 7:00 AMSun 2:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Garrison Bight / Key West public ramps

    City of Key West

    The Lower Keys door. Marquesas is a weather-window run from here.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

  • Western Sambo Ecological Reserve

    Ecological Reserve — no take

    FKNMS GIS
  • Eastern Dry Rocks

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Eastern Sambo (Research Only)

    Research Only — closed except permitted science

    FKNMS GIS
  • Rock Key

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Sand Key

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS

Why — and who

  • Tide is incoming from NOAA.
  • Thunderstorms · 29%. Lightning is a stay-tied call.
  • Wind 10 mph E. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • Waning gibbous moon — spring tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

8.4

Thermal window

66°90°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

8.4

Thermal window

66°90°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

6.6

Thermal window

68°94°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

6.6

Thermal window

66°92°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Mutton snapper

Lutjanus analis

6.6

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 18 in, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

4.8

Thermal window

64°92°

Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

5.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 8 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.