On This Water

Florida · Lower Keys / Key West

Permit should be the day — the oceanside wrecks and the falling contentment flats.

Marquesas, Harbor Key, oceanside wrecks, the contentment of long runs. Permit and tarpon country. Summer showers can switch a flat on once it clears.

  • This brief is for 2026-05-11, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
  • FKNMS no-take water in this box: Western Sambo Ecological Reserve, Eastern Dry Rocks, Eastern Sambo (Research Only). The red polygons are the legal source — do not fish them.
7.3OF 10

Forecast

medium confidence

Forecast brief for Monday, May 11. Back to this morning

Morning line

Key West 7.3 on Monday, May 11. 9 mph ESE. Mostly clear. YOLO day is Tuesday, August 25. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-0.9-0.10.71.62.4HLHLHLHLSun 8 PMMon 8 PMTue 8 PMWed 8 PMThu 8 PM
outgoing · 1.11 ft · drag or hover for the clockNOAA tide gauge 8724580 · Key West · ft MLLW · not a weather buoy

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW9MPH

From ESE · gust 10

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clouds

Mostly clear

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

28% lit

Waning crescent

mid range · 28%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 1.1 ft

outgoing

1.11 ft MLLW

Clock

NOAA 8724580

  • HighMon 6:26 AM · 1.24
  • LowMon 12:00 PM · 0.51
  • HighMon 6:25 PM · 1.35
  • LowTue 12:22 AM · 0.33
  • HighTue 7:02 AM · 1.42

Monthly YOLO day

Tuesday, August 25 · 9.1

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waxing gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.1 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 47%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • Marquesas

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    7.2

    Long run, fewer boats. Permit country. Weather window or you don't go.

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Tarpon.
    skifffly
  • Harbor Keys / Content Keys

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    7.2

    North of the island. Named banks. Incoming is the shot. Harbor Key Bank is USGS GNIS 299988 just north.

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Tarpon.
    skiffflyspin
  • Harbor Key Bank

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    7.2

    USGS GNIS 299988. The named bank north of the Content Keys. Incoming is the shot.

    USGS GNIS 299988

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Tarpon.
    skiffflyspin
  • Key West oceanside wrecks

    wreck edge · public structure · deep

    5.6

    The deep-edge permit game. Falling tide, first of the flood.

    • wreck edge on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    • Offshore wreck or hump — secondary to the flat on this brief.
    skiffspinfly

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Outgoing water

    9.7

    Mon 8:00 AMMon 2:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    9.4

    Mon 1:00 PMMon 8:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    8.3

    Mon 8:00 PMTue 2:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    9.7

    Tue 2:00 AMTue 9:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    9.7

    Tue 8:00 AMTue 3:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Garrison Bight / Key West public ramps

    City of Key West

    The Lower Keys door. Marquesas is a weather-window run from here.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

  • Western Sambo Ecological Reserve

    Ecological Reserve — no take

    FKNMS GIS
  • Eastern Dry Rocks

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Eastern Sambo (Research Only)

    Research Only — closed except permitted science

    FKNMS GIS
  • Rock Key

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Sand Key

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS

Why — and who

  • Tide is outgoing from NOAA 8724580 Key West.
  • Mostly clear. Clouds steal the window on bones and permit.
  • Wind 9 mph ESE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • Waning crescent moon — mid tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

8.4

Thermal window

68°94°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

8.4

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

8.4

Thermal window

66°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

8.4

Thermal window

66°90°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

8.4

Thermal window

66°90°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Mutton snapper

Lutjanus analis

8.4

Thermal window

66°90°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 18 in, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

5.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.