On This Water

Florida · Lower Keys / Key West

Permit should be the day — make the run or wait; slack out here is expensive.

Marquesas, Harbor Key, oceanside wrecks, the contentment of long runs. Permit and tarpon country. Summer showers can switch a flat on once it clears.

  • This brief is for 2026-05-04. No wind forecast that far out — score is tide, moon, and season. Not a copper day.
  • FKNMS no-take water in this box: Western Sambo Ecological Reserve, Eastern Dry Rocks, Eastern Sambo (Research Only). The red polygons are the legal source — do not fish them.
  • Tide · modeled — NOAA 8724580 quiet
  • NDBC SANF1 quiet
  • Red-tide check failed — not all-clear
  • Sargassum check failed — not all-clear
  • Water temp quiet
8.1OF 10

Tide + moon

low confidence

Forecast brief for Monday, May 4. Back to this morning

Morning line

Key West 8.1 on Monday, May 4 — tide, moon, and season only. No wind forecast that far out. YOLO day is Tuesday, August 25. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-1.0-0.50.00.51.0HLHLHLHLMon 8 AMTue 8 AMWed 8 AMThu 8 AM
high slack · 0.44 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.

Wind

NWS

NESWMPH

No wind reading

Buoy

NDBC SANF1

Quiet

Sand Key did not report. Witness only — not the tide clock.

Sky

NWS

Sky not in

Sky not in

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

93% lit

Waning gibbous

mid range · 93%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 1.0 ft

high slack

0.44 ft modeled

Coast

No live coast layer

Red-tide check failed. That is not all-clear — open the agency page before you wade.

Sargassum check failed. Not a GPS pin. Not all-clear.

Clock

NOAA 8724580

  • HighMon 7:00 AM · 0.46
  • LowMon 2:00 PM · -0.48
  • HighMon 8:00 PM · 0.51
  • LowTue 2:00 AM · -0.53
  • HighTue 8:00 AM · 0.55

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Monthly YOLO day

Tuesday, August 25

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waxing gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.1 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 47%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • Marquesas

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    7.7

    Long run, fewer boats. Permit country. Weather window or you don't go.

    • hard flat on a high slack tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Tarpon.
    skifffly
  • Harbor Keys / Content Keys

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    7.7

    North of the island. Named banks. Incoming is the shot. Harbor Key Bank is USGS GNIS 299988 just north.

    • hard flat on a high slack tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Tarpon.
    skiffflyspin
  • Harbor Key Bank

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    7.7

    USGS GNIS 299988. The named bank north of the Content Keys. Incoming is the shot.

    USGS GNIS 299988

    • hard flat on a high slack tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Tarpon.
    skiffflyspin
  • Key West oceanside wrecks

    wreck edge · public structure · deep

    4.2

    The deep-edge permit game. Falling tide, first of the flood.

    • wreck edge on a high slack tide is a secondary match.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    • Offshore wreck or hump — secondary to the flat on this brief.
    skiffspinfly

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. First light and last light are named when the clock is the story. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Outgoing water

    9.4

    Mon 9:00 AMMon 3:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Last light · incoming

    9.1

    Mon 3:00 PMMon 10:00 PM

    Last light on incoming water.

  • Last light · outgoing

    8.0

    Mon 9:00 PMTue 4:00 AM

    Last light on outgoing water.

  • First light · incoming

    9.4

    Tue 3:00 AMTue 10:00 AM

    First light on incoming water.

  • Outgoing water

    9.4

    Tue 9:00 AMTue 4:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Garrison Bight / Key West public ramps

    City of Key West

    The Lower Keys door. Marquesas is a weather-window run from here.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

  • Western Sambo Ecological Reserve

    Ecological Reserve — no take

    FKNMS GIS
  • Eastern Dry Rocks

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Eastern Sambo (Research Only)

    Research Only — closed except permitted science

    FKNMS GIS
  • Rock Key

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Sand Key

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS

Why — and who

  • Tide is high slack (modeled — NOAA 8724580 Key West did not answer).
  • Waning gibbous moon — mid tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

7.3

Thermal window

68°94°

In peak season for this water.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

7.3

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

7.3

Thermal window

66°92°

In peak season for this water.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

7.3

Thermal window

66°90°

In peak season for this water.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

7.3

Thermal window

66°90°

In peak season for this water.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Mutton snapper

Lutjanus analis

7.3

Thermal window

66°90°

In peak season for this water.

Florida: typically 18 in, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

5.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.