Tarpon
Megalops atlanticus
Thermal window
—
In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.
Florida · Lower Keys / Key West
Permit should be the day — Marquesas and Harbor Key on a clean incoming — permit country.
Marquesas, Harbor Key, oceanside wrecks, the contentment of long runs. Permit and tarpon country. Summer showers can switch a flat on once it clears.
- ⚠ This brief is for 2026-04-21. No wind forecast that far out — score is tide, moon, and season. Not a copper day.
Tide + moon
low confidence
Forecast brief for Tuesday, April 21. Back to this morning
Morning line
Key West 8.9 on Tuesday, April 21 — tide, moon, and season only. No wind forecast that far out. YOLO day is Monday, August 31. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.
incoming · 0.57 ftModeled M2 · not a gauge
Wind
NWS
No wind reading
Sky
NWS
Sky not in
Sky not in
A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.
Moon
19% lit
Waxing crescent
mid range · 19%
Water
No gauge
Water
—
Today’s range 1.3 ft
incoming
0.57 ft modeled
Clock
NOAA 8724580
- LowTue 3:00 AM · -0.59
- HighTue 9:00 AM · 0.62
- LowTue 3:00 PM · -0.65
- HighTue 9:00 PM · 0.66
- LowWed 3:00 AM · -0.67
Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.
Monthly YOLO day
Monday, August 31 · 9.1
Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waning gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.7 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 59%
Next two weeks
Pulling the 14-day strip…
Where
- 9.0
Marquesas
hard flat · field manual · skinny
Long run, fewer boats. Permit country. Weather window or you don't go.
- — hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Tarpon.
skifffly - 9.0
Harbor Keys / Content Keys
hard flat · public structure · skinny
North of the island. Named banks. Incoming is the shot. Harbor Key Bank is USGS GNIS 299988 just north.
- — hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Tarpon.
skiffflyspin - 9.0
Harbor Key Bank
hard flat · public structure · skinny
USGS GNIS 299988. The named bank north of the Content Keys. Incoming is the shot.
USGS GNIS 299988
- — hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Tarpon.
skiffflyspin - 5.5
Key West oceanside wrecks
wreck edge · public structure · deep
The deep-edge permit game. Falling tide, first of the flood.
- — wreck edge on a incoming tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
- — Offshore wreck or hump — secondary to the flat on this brief.
skiffspinfly
When
Incoming water
9.4Tue 8:00 AM → Tue 11:00 AM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Outgoing water
9.4Tue 10:00 AM → Tue 5:00 PM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Incoming water
9.1Tue 4:00 PM → Tue 11:00 PM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Outgoing water
8.0Tue 10:00 PM → Wed 5:00 AM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Incoming water
9.4Wed 4:00 AM → Wed 11:00 AM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Launch and beach access
County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.
Garrison Bight / Key West public ramps
City of Key West
The Lower Keys door. Marquesas is a weather-window run from here.
Official source
Legal water
NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.
No FKNMS polygon in this box. Mainland Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Mexico, and the Bahamas are not Keys sanctuary closures.
Why — and who
- — Tide is incoming (modeled — the NOAA gauge did not answer).
- — Waxing crescent moon — mid tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.
8.4
Bonefish
Albula vulpes
Thermal window
—
In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.
Permit
Trachinotus falcatus
Thermal window
—
In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.
Hogfish
Lachnolaimus maximus
Thermal window
—
In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.
Yellowtail snapper
Ocyurus chrysurus
Thermal window
—
In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.
Mutton snapper
Lutjanus analis
Thermal window
—
In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Florida: typically 18 in, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.
Jack crevalle
Caranx hippos
Thermal window
—
Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.
Great barracuda
Sphyraena barracuda
Thermal window
—
Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.
Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.