On This Water

Florida · Lower Keys / Key West

Permit should be the day — the oceanside wrecks and the falling contentment flats.

Marquesas, Harbor Key, oceanside wrecks, the contentment of long runs. Permit and tarpon country. Summer showers can switch a flat on once it clears.

  • This brief is for 2026-04-04, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
  • FKNMS no-take water in this box: Western Sambo Ecological Reserve, Eastern Dry Rocks, Eastern Sambo (Research Only). The red polygons are the legal source — do not fish them.
7.3OF 10

Forecast

low confidence

Forecast brief for Saturday, April 4. Back to this morning

Morning line

Key West 7.3 on Saturday, April 4. 10 mph ESE. Mostly clear. YOLO day is Tuesday, August 25. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-0.9-0.50.00.51.0HLHLHLHLSat 8 AMSun 8 AMMon 8 AMTue 8 AM
outgoing · 0.36 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW10MPH

From ESE · gust 10

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clouds

Mostly clear

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

95% lit

Waning gibbous

spring range · 95%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 0.9 ft

outgoing

0.36 ft modeled

Clock

NOAA 8724580

  • HighSat 7:00 AM · 0.43
  • LowSat 1:00 PM · -0.45
  • HighSat 7:00 PM · 0.46
  • LowSun 2:00 AM · -0.48
  • HighSun 8:00 AM · 0.51

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Monthly YOLO day

Tuesday, August 25 · 9.1

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waxing gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.1 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 47%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • Marquesas

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    7.2

    Long run, fewer boats. Permit country. Weather window or you don't go.

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Tarpon.
    skifffly
  • Harbor Keys / Content Keys

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    7.2

    North of the island. Named banks. Incoming is the shot. Harbor Key Bank is USGS GNIS 299988 just north.

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Tarpon.
    skiffflyspin
  • Harbor Key Bank

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    7.2

    USGS GNIS 299988. The named bank north of the Content Keys. Incoming is the shot.

    USGS GNIS 299988

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Tarpon.
    skiffflyspin
  • Key West oceanside wrecks

    wreck edge · public structure · deep

    5.6

    The deep-edge permit game. Falling tide, first of the flood.

    • wreck edge on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    • Offshore wreck or hump — secondary to the flat on this brief.
    skiffspinfly

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Outgoing water

    9.7

    Sat 8:00 AMSat 3:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    9.4

    Sat 2:00 PMSat 9:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    8.3

    Sat 9:00 PMSun 3:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    9.7

    Sun 3:00 AMSun 10:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    9.7

    Sun 9:00 AMSun 4:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Garrison Bight / Key West public ramps

    City of Key West

    The Lower Keys door. Marquesas is a weather-window run from here.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

  • Western Sambo Ecological Reserve

    Ecological Reserve — no take

    FKNMS GIS
  • Eastern Dry Rocks

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Eastern Sambo (Research Only)

    Research Only — closed except permitted science

    FKNMS GIS
  • Rock Key

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Sand Key

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS

Why — and who

  • Tide is outgoing (modeled — NOAA 8724580 Key West did not answer).
  • Mostly clear. Clouds steal the window on bones and permit.
  • Wind 10 mph ESE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • Waning gibbous moon — spring tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

8.4

Thermal window

68°94°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

8.4

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

8.4

Thermal window

66°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

8.4

Thermal window

66°90°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

8.4

Thermal window

66°90°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Mutton snapper

Lutjanus analis

8.4

Thermal window

66°90°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 18 in, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

5.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.