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Florida · Key Largo / Pennekamp

Bonefish should be the day — the falling ocean bank and Tavernier Creek; Pennekamp SPAs stay no-take.

The first Key. Card Sound and Jewfish Creek to the north, Tavernier Creek to the south. Oceanside banks for bones and permit; Blackwater and Buttonwood for baby tarpon and snook. NOAA 8723689 is Point Charles (predictions). Water temp is Virginia Key 8723214 — there is no live well at Point Charles. Pennekamp is the launch. Adjacent FKNMS SPAs are no-take.

  • ⚠ This brief is for 2026-01-04. No wind forecast that far out — score is tide, moon, and season. Not a copper day.
  • ⚠ Snook are typically closed to harvest on the SE/Atlantic coast in this window. Verify FWC.
  • Tide · modeled — NOAA 8723689 quiet
  • NDBC LONF1 quiet
  • Red-tide check failed — not all-clear
  • Sargassum check failed — not all-clear
  • Water temp quiet
7.9OF 10

Tide + moon

low confidence

Forecast brief for Sunday, January 4. Back to this morning

Morning line

Key Largo 7.9 on Sunday, January 4 — tide, moon, and season only. No wind forecast that far out. YOLO day is Saturday, August 29. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-1.2-0.60.00.61.2HLHLHLHLSun 7 AMMon 7 AMTue 7 AMWed 7 AM
outgoing · -0.20 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.

Wind

NWS

NESW—MPH

No wind reading

Buoy

NDBC LONF1

Quiet

Long Key did not report. Witness only — not the tide clock.

Sky

NWS

Sky not in

Sky not in

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

99% lit

Full

spring range · 99%

Water

No gauge

Water

—

48°92°

Today’s range 1.2 ft

outgoing

-0.20 ft modeled

Coast

No live coast layer

Red-tide check failed. That is not all-clear — open the agency page before you wade.

Sargassum check failed. Not a GPS pin. Not all-clear.

Clock

NOAA 8723689

  • HighSun 4:00 AM · 0.55
  • LowSun 10:00 AM · -0.54
  • HighSun 5:00 PM · 0.56
  • LowSun 11:00 PM · -0.58
  • HighMon 5:00 AM · 0.59

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Monthly YOLO day

Saturday, August 29

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waning gibbous · spring · tide range ~2.3 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 47%

Stay or drive · Key Largo vs IslamoradaOpen the calendarMorning dispatch

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • Card Sound / Jewfish Creek

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    7.0

    The north throat. Public bridge and cut current. Not a Biscayne bank and not Islamorada. Baby tarpon and snook on the moving water.

    • — channel gut on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    skiffspinfly

  • Garden Cove / Pennekamp oceanside

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    7.0

    The park is the launch, not a honey hole. Clean incoming on the named banks. Adjacent FKNMS SPAs are no-take — the red polygons are the legal source.

    • — hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • — In-play: Bonefish.
    skiffflyspin

  • Rodriguez Key / Mosquito Bank

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    7.0

    Named oceanside key and bank. Incoming is the shot. Educated fish, short window, boat traffic from the park.

    • — hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • — In-play: Bonefish.
    skifffly

  • Blackwater Sound

    mangrove edge · public structure · mid

    7.0

    Bayside. Baby tarpon and snook along the roots. Not the oceanside slam. Outgoing along the mangrove.

    • — mangrove edge on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    skiffkayakspinfly

  • Tavernier Creek

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    7.0

    The south cut toward Plantation Key. Current is the fishery. Channel 5 is the next desk south — do not steal it.

    • — channel gut on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    skiffspinfly

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. First light and last light are named when the clock is the story. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Outgoing water

    8.5

    Sun 8:00 AM → Sun 12:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Last light · incoming

    9.4

    Sun 12:00 PM → Sun 7:00 PM

    Last light on incoming water.

  • Last light · outgoing

    7.4

    Sun 6:00 PM → Mon 1:00 AM

    Last light on outgoing water.

  • First light · incoming

    7.4

    Mon 12:00 AM → Mon 7:00 AM

    First light on incoming water.

  • First light · outgoing

    9.4

    Mon 7:00 AM → Mon 1:00 PM

    First light on outgoing water.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • John Pennekamp Coral Reef State Park

    Florida State Parks

    Key Largo launch. Adjacent SPAs are no-take — check the red polygons.

    Official source

  • Harry Harris Park / Tavernier

    Monroe County Parks

    County park on the oceanside at the south end of Key Largo. Tavernier Creek is the cut.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

No FKNMS polygon in this box. Mainland Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Mexico, and the Bahamas are not Keys sanctuary closures.

Why — and who

  • — Tide is outgoing (modeled — NOAA 8723689 Point Charles, Key Largo did not answer).
  • — Full moon — spring tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

8.4

Thermal window

—

64°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

6.6

Thermal window

—

66°90°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

4.8

Thermal window

—

68°94°

Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

4.8

Thermal window

—

66°92°

Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

4.8

Thermal window

—

66°90°

Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Snook

Centropomus undecimalis

1.7

Thermal window

—

56°92°

Closed to harvest — still swims, do not keep. Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Region matters. SE/Atlantic (Jupiter, Biscayne): typically 28–32 in, 1/day, closed Dec 15–Jan 31 and June 1–Aug 31. Charlotte Harbor / Southwest (Boca Grande): typically 28–33 in, closed Dec 1–end of Feb and May 1–Sep 30. Snook permit required. Verify FWC.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

—

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

4.8

Thermal window

—

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.