On This Water

Florida · Islamorada / Matecumbe

Permit should be the day — run or rest — slack on this water is not a hunt.

The mecca. Oceanside bones and permit, bayside backcountry, Channel 2 / Channel 5 current, wrecks for permit. Most pressured fish in the hemisphere.

  • This brief is for 2027-03-13, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
  • FKNMS no-take water in this box: Cheeca Rocks, Alligator Reef, Hen and Chickens + 3 more on the map. The red polygons are the legal source — do not fish them.
  • Tide · NOAA 8723970
  • NDBC LONF1 quiet
  • Red-tide check failed — not all-clear
  • Sargassum check failed — not all-clear
  • Water temp quiet
8.1OF 10

Forecast

medium confidence

Forecast brief for Saturday, March 13. Back to this morning

Morning line

Islamorada 8.1 on Saturday, March 13. 11 mph ESE. Clear. YOLO day is Monday, August 31. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-0.8-0.40.10.50.9HLHLHLHLFri 7 PMSat 7 PMSun 8 PMMon 8 PMTue 8 PM
high slack · 0.15 ft · drag or hover for the clockNOAA tide gauge 8723970 · Vaca Key, Florida Bay · ft MLLW · not a weather buoy

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW11MPH

From ESE · gust 11

Buoy

NDBC LONF1

Quiet

Long Key did not report. Witness only — not the tide clock.

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clear

Clear

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

31% lit

Waxing crescent

neap range · 31%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 1.3 ft

high slack

0.15 ft MLLW

Coast

No live coast layer

Red-tide check failed. That is not all-clear — open the agency page before you wade.

Sargassum check failed. Not a GPS pin. Not all-clear.

Clock

NOAA 8723970

  • HighSat 6:38 AM · 0.18
  • LowSat 9:17 AM · 0.11
  • HighSat 4:21 PM · 0.68
  • LowSat 10:38 PM · -0.58
  • HighSun 5:59 PM · 0.70

Monthly YOLO day

Monday, August 31

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waning gibbous · mid · tide range ~0.7 ft · wind to 15 mph · Thunderstorms · 54%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • FL - Long Key State Park (Keys)

    sand dropoff · saved map · mid

    7.2

    Oceanfront camping with bonefish flats at the tent. Reserve far ahead. · camp-surf · GULF ATLAS! - FISH

    • sand dropoff on a high slack tide is a secondary match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Tarpon, Hogfish, Yellowtail snapper, Mutton snapper.
    structurespinwade
  • Islamorada oceanside flats

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    7.1

    The mecca. Big, few, educated. Clean incoming, sun at your back. Lorelei is intel, not a mark.

    • hard flat on a high slack tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Bonefish, Permit.
    skifffly
  • Tea Table / Indian Key fills

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    7.1

    Named fills and banks. Incoming is the shot. Pressure is the tax. Indian Key Channel is USGS GNIS 284511.

    • hard flat on a high slack tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Bonefish, Permit.
    skiffflyspin
  • Channel 2 / Channel 5

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    6.6

    Moving water. Permit and tarpon on the fall and the first of the flood. Channel Five is USGS GNIS 280292 just south.

    • channel gut on a high slack tide is a secondary match.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffflyspin
  • Channel Five

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    6.6

    USGS GNIS 280292. The named cut. Current is the whole fishery. Adjacent FKNMS polygons are no-take.

    USGS GNIS 280292

    • channel gut on a high slack tide is a secondary match.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffflyspin
  • Indian Key Channel

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    6.6

    USGS GNIS 284511. The fill-and-cut current between Tea Table and Indian Key.

    USGS GNIS 284511

    • channel gut on a high slack tide is a secondary match.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffspinfly

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. First light and last light are named when the clock is the story. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Outgoing water

    10.0

    Sat 9:00 AMSat 11:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    9.7

    Sat 11:00 AMSat 6:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Last light · outgoing

    9.7

    Sat 6:00 PMSun 12:00 AM

    Last light on outgoing water.

  • First light · incoming

    10.0

    Sun 12:00 AMSun 8:00 PM

    First light on incoming water.

  • Last light · outgoing

    9.7

    Sun 7:00 PMMon 2:00 AM

    Last light on outgoing water.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Harry Harris Park / Tavernier

    Monroe County Parks

    County park on the oceanside at the south end of Key Largo. Tavernier Creek is the cut.

    Official source
  • Founders Park / Islamorada

    Village of Islamorada

    Public ramp, bayside. The oceanside flats are a run from here.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

  • Cheeca Rocks

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Alligator Reef

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Hen and Chickens

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Davis Reef

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Conch Reef

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Conch Reef (Research Only)

    Research Only — closed except permitted science

    FKNMS GIS

+ 3 more zones on the map.

Why — and who

  • Tide is high slack from NOAA 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay.
  • Clear. Sky is workable.
  • Wind 11 mph ESE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • Waxing crescent moon — neap tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

7.3

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

7.3

Thermal window

66°92°

In peak season for this water.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

5.5

Thermal window

68°94°

Present, not peak.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

5.5

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

5.5

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Mutton snapper

Lutjanus analis

5.5

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak.

Florida: typically 18 in, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.5

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

3.7

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.