On This Water

Florida · Islamorada / Matecumbe

Bonefish should be the day — the wrecks and the falling ocean bank; pressured fish want a clean shot.

The mecca. Oceanside bones and permit, bayside backcountry, Channel 2 / Channel 5 current, wrecks for permit. Most pressured fish in the hemisphere.

  • This brief is for 2026-12-23, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
  • Snook are typically closed to harvest on the SE/Atlantic coast in this window. Verify FWC.
  • FKNMS no-take water in this box: Cheeca Rocks, Alligator Reef, Hen and Chickens + 3 more on the map. The red polygons are the legal source — do not fish them.
  • Tide · modeled — NOAA 8723970 quiet
  • NDBC LONF1 quiet
  • Red-tide check failed — not all-clear
  • Sargassum check failed — not all-clear
  • Water temp quiet
8.2OF 10

Forecast

low confidence

Forecast brief for Wednesday, December 23. Back to this morning

Morning line

Islamorada 8.2 on Wednesday, December 23. 11 mph SE. Clear. YOLO day is Monday, August 31. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-0.9-0.5-0.00.40.8LHLHLHLHWed 7 AMThu 7 AMFri 7 AMSat 7 AM
outgoing · -0.49 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW11MPH

From SE · gust 11

Buoy

NDBC LONF1

Quiet

Long Key did not report. Witness only — not the tide clock.

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clear

Clear

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

99% lit

Full

spring range · 99%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 1.0 ft

outgoing

-0.49 ft modeled

Coast

No live coast layer

Red-tide check failed. That is not all-clear — open the agency page before you wade.

Sargassum check failed. Not a GPS pin. Not all-clear.

Clock

NOAA 8723970

  • LowWed 9:00 AM · -0.50
  • HighWed 3:00 PM · 0.49
  • LowWed 9:00 PM · -0.48
  • HighThu 4:00 AM · 0.46
  • LowThu 10:00 AM · -0.47

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Monthly YOLO day

Monday, August 31

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waning gibbous · mid · tide range ~0.7 ft · wind to 15 mph · Thunderstorms · 54%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • FL - Long Key State Park (Keys)

    sand dropoff · saved map · mid

    8.1

    Oceanfront camping with bonefish flats at the tent. Reserve far ahead. · camp-surf · GULF ATLAS! - FISH

    • sand dropoff on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish, Yellowtail snapper.
    structurespinwade
  • Channel 2 / Channel 5

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    7.0

    Moving water. Permit and tarpon on the fall and the first of the flood. Channel Five is USGS GNIS 280292 just south.

    • channel gut on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    skiffflyspin
  • Channel Five

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    7.0

    USGS GNIS 280292. The named cut. Current is the whole fishery. Adjacent FKNMS polygons are no-take.

    USGS GNIS 280292

    • channel gut on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    skiffflyspin
  • Islamorada oceanside flats

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    7.0

    The mecca. Big, few, educated. Clean incoming, sun at your back. Lorelei is intel, not a mark.

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    skifffly
  • Robbie's / Islamorada bayside

    mangrove edge · field manual · mid

    7.0

    Tarpon roll under the breakfast dock. That is a tourist fact. The backcountry behind it is the fishery.

    • mangrove edge on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    skiffspinfly
  • Tea Table / Indian Key fills

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    7.0

    Named fills and banks. Incoming is the shot. Pressure is the tax. Indian Key Channel is USGS GNIS 284511.

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    skiffflyspin

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. First light and last light are named when the clock is the story. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Outgoing water

    8.1

    Wed 8:00 AMWed 10:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    10.0

    Wed 10:00 AMWed 5:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Last light · outgoing

    10.0

    Wed 4:00 PMWed 11:00 PM

    Last light on outgoing water.

  • Last light · incoming

    8.1

    Wed 10:00 PMThu 5:00 AM

    Last light on incoming water.

  • First light · outgoing

    9.1

    Thu 5:00 AMThu 12:00 PM

    First light on outgoing water.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Harry Harris Park / Tavernier

    Monroe County Parks

    County park on the oceanside at the south end of Key Largo. Tavernier Creek is the cut.

    Official source
  • Founders Park / Islamorada

    Village of Islamorada

    Public ramp, bayside. The oceanside flats are a run from here.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

  • Cheeca Rocks

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Alligator Reef

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Hen and Chickens

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Davis Reef

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Conch Reef

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Conch Reef (Research Only)

    Research Only — closed except permitted science

    FKNMS GIS

+ 3 more zones on the map.

Why — and who

  • Tide is outgoing (modeled — NOAA 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay did not answer).
  • Clear. Sky is workable.
  • Wind 11 mph SE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • Full moon — spring tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

8.4

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

6.6

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

4.8

Thermal window

68°94°

Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

4.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

4.8

Thermal window

66°90°

Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Mutton snapper

Lutjanus analis

4.8

Thermal window

66°90°

Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 18 in, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

4.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.