On This Water

Florida · Islamorada / Matecumbe

Bonefish should be the day — the wrecks and the falling ocean bank; pressured fish want a clean shot.

The mecca. Oceanside bones and permit, bayside backcountry, Channel 2 / Channel 5 current, wrecks for permit. Most pressured fish in the hemisphere.

  • This brief is for 2026-11-12. No wind forecast that far out — score is tide, moon, and season. Not a copper day.
  • FKNMS no-take water in this box: Cheeca Rocks, Alligator Reef, Hen and Chickens + 3 more on the map. The red polygons are the legal source — do not fish them.
8.8OF 10

Tide + moon

low confidence

Forecast brief for Thursday, November 12. Back to this morning

Morning line

Islamorada 8.8 on Thursday, November 12 — tide, moon, and season only. No wind forecast that far out. YOLO day is Monday, August 31. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-1.3-0.60.00.71.3HLHLHLHLThu 7 AMFri 7 AMSat 7 AMSun 7 AM
outgoing · 0.41 ftModeled M2 · not a gauge

Wind

NWS

NESWMPH

No wind reading

Sky

NWS

Sky not in

Sky not in

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

8% lit

Waxing crescent

mid range · 8%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 1.4 ft

outgoing

0.41 ft modeled

Clock

NOAA 8723970

  • HighThu 6:00 AM · 0.59
  • LowThu 1:00 PM · -0.62
  • HighThu 7:00 PM · 0.66
  • LowFri 1:00 AM · -0.69
  • HighFri 7:00 AM · 0.71

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Monthly YOLO day

Monday, August 31 · 8.7

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waning gibbous · mid · tide range ~0.7 ft · wind to 15 mph · Thunderstorms · 63%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

  • FL - Long Key State Park (Keys)

    sand dropoff · saved map · mid

    8.7

    Oceanfront camping with bonefish flats at the tent. Reserve far ahead. · camp-surf · GULF ATLAS! - FISH

    • sand dropoff on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish, Hogfish, Yellowtail snapper.
    structurespinwade
  • Channel 2 / Channel 5

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    7.0

    Moving water. Permit and tarpon on the fall and the first of the flood. Channel Five is USGS GNIS 280292 just south.

    • channel gut on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    skiffflyspin
  • Channel Five

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    7.0

    USGS GNIS 280292. The named cut. Current is the whole fishery. Adjacent FKNMS polygons are no-take.

    USGS GNIS 280292

    • channel gut on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    skiffflyspin
  • Islamorada oceanside flats

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    7.0

    The mecca. Big, few, educated. Clean incoming, sun at your back. Lorelei is intel, not a mark.

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    skifffly
  • Robbie's / Islamorada bayside

    mangrove edge · field manual · mid

    7.0

    Tarpon roll under the breakfast dock. That is a tourist fact. The backcountry behind it is the fishery.

    • mangrove edge on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    skiffspinfly
  • Tea Table / Indian Key fills

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    7.0

    Named fills and banks. Incoming is the shot. Pressure is the tax. Indian Key Channel is USGS GNIS 284511.

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    skiffflyspin

When

  • Outgoing water

    9.4

    Thu 8:00 AMThu 2:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    9.1

    Thu 2:00 PMThu 9:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    8.0

    Thu 8:00 PMFri 3:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    9.4

    Fri 2:00 AMFri 9:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    9.4

    Fri 8:00 AMFri 3:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Harry Harris Park / Tavernier

    Monroe County Parks

    County park on the oceanside at the south end of Key Largo. Tavernier Creek is the cut.

    Official source
  • Founders Park / Islamorada

    Village of Islamorada

    Public ramp, bayside. The oceanside flats are a run from here.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

  • Cheeca Rocks

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Alligator Reef

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Hen and Chickens

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Davis Reef

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Conch Reef

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Conch Reef (Research Only)

    Research Only — closed except permitted science

    FKNMS GIS

+ 3 more zones on the map.

Why — and who

  • Tide is outgoing (modeled — the NOAA gauge did not answer).
  • Waxing crescent moon — mid tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

8.4

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

6.6

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

6.6

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

4.8

Thermal window

68°94°

Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

4.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Mutton snapper

Lutjanus analis

4.8

Thermal window

66°90°

Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 18 in, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

4.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.