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Florida · Islamorada / Matecumbe

Permit should be the day — the wrecks and the falling ocean bank; pressured fish want a clean shot.

The mecca. Oceanside bones and permit, bayside backcountry, Channel 2 / Channel 5 current, wrecks for permit. Most pressured fish in the hemisphere.

  • ⚠ This brief is for 2026-10-23. No wind forecast that far out — score is tide, moon, and season. Not a copper day.
8.3OF 10

Tide + moon

low confidence

Forecast brief for Friday, October 23. Back to this morning

Morning line

Islamorada 8.3 on Friday, October 23 — tide, moon, and season only. No wind forecast that far out. YOLO day is Tuesday, August 25. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-1.0-0.50.00.51.0LHLHLHLHFri 8 AMSat 8 AMSun 8 AMMon 8 AM
outgoing · -0.72 ftModeled M2 · not a gauge

Wind

NWS

NESW—MPH

No wind reading

Sky

NWS

Sky not in

Sky not in

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

92% lit

Waxing gibbous

mid range · 92%

Water

No gauge

Water

—

48°92°

Today’s range 1.4 ft

outgoing

-0.72 ft modeled

Clock

NOAA 8723970

  • LowFri 8:00 AM · -0.72
  • HighFri 2:00 PM · 0.69
  • LowFri 8:00 PM · -0.66
  • HighSat 2:00 AM · 0.63
  • LowSat 9:00 AM · -0.59

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Monthly YOLO day

Tuesday, August 25 · 9.1

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waxing gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.4 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 50%

Stay or drive · Islamorada vs FlamingoOpen the calendarMorning dispatch

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

  • FL - Long Key State Park (Keys)

    sand dropoff · saved map · mid

    8.7

    Oceanfront camping with bonefish flats at the tent. Reserve far ahead. · camp-surf · GULF ATLAS! - FISH

    • — sand dropoff on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • — In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Tarpon, Hogfish, Yellowtail snapper, Mutton snapper.
    structurespinwade

  • Channel 2 / Channel 5

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    8.4

    Moving water. Permit and tarpon on the fall and the first of the flood. Channel Five is USGS GNIS 280292 just south.

    • — channel gut on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • — In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffflyspin

  • Channel Five

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    8.4

    USGS GNIS 280292. The named cut. Current is the whole fishery. Adjacent FKNMS polygons are no-take.

    USGS GNIS 280292

    • — channel gut on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • — In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffflyspin

  • Indian Key Channel

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    8.4

    USGS GNIS 284511. The fill-and-cut current between Tea Table and Indian Key.

    USGS GNIS 284511

    • — channel gut on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • — In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffspinfly

  • Islamorada oceanside flats

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    7.7

    The mecca. Big, few, educated. Clean incoming, sun at your back. Lorelei is intel, not a mark.

    • — hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • — In-play: Bonefish, Permit.
    skifffly

  • Robbie's / Islamorada bayside

    mangrove edge · field manual · mid

    7.7

    Tarpon roll under the breakfast dock. That is a tourist fact. The backcountry behind it is the fishery.

    • — mangrove edge on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • — In-play: Tarpon.
    skiffspinfly

When

  • Outgoing water

    9.4

    Fri 8:00 AM → Fri 10:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    9.4

    Fri 9:00 AM → Fri 4:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    9.1

    Fri 3:00 PM → Fri 10:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    8.0

    Fri 9:00 PM → Sat 4:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    9.4

    Sat 4:00 AM → Sat 10:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Harry Harris Park / Tavernier

    Monroe County Parks

    County park on the oceanside at the south end of Key Largo. Tavernier Creek is the cut.

    Official source

  • Founders Park / Islamorada

    Village of Islamorada

    Public ramp, bayside. The oceanside flats are a run from here.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

No FKNMS polygon in this box. Mainland Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Mexico, and the Bahamas are not Keys sanctuary closures.

Why — and who

  • — Tide is outgoing (modeled — the NOAA gauge did not answer).
  • — Waxing gibbous moon — mid tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

8.4

Thermal window

—

66°90°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

6.6

Thermal window

—

68°94°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

6.6

Thermal window

—

64°92°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

6.6

Thermal window

—

66°92°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

6.6

Thermal window

—

66°90°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Mutton snapper

Lutjanus analis

6.6

Thermal window

—

66°90°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 18 in, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

5.8

Thermal window

—

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

—

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 8 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.