On This Water

Florida · Islamorada / Matecumbe

Permit are the hunt — oceanside permit and bones, or Channel 5 current — not a Texas marsh sentence. Heat is the clock — first light or last light.

The mecca. Oceanside bones and permit, bayside backcountry, Channel 2 / Channel 5 current, wrecks for permit. Most pressured fish in the hemisphere.

  • Extreme water temperature. Fish stress quickly — keep them wet, or don't boat them.
  • Thunderstorms in the forecast. Lightning is a stay-tied call. The score is not a safety brief.
  • Snook are typically closed to harvest on the SE/Atlantic coast in this window. Verify FWC.
4.5OF 10

Today

high confidence

Morning line

Islamorada 4.5 this morning. 5 mph E. Thunderstorms · 16%. Wind versus the table: +0.4 ft. YOLO day is Monday, August 31. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
0.00.30.71.01.4HLHLHLHLNOWSun 8 PMMon 8 PMTue 8 PMWed 8 PMThu 8 PM
incoming · 0.51 ftNOAA hourly · ft MLLW

Wind

NOAA

NESW5MPH

From E · gust 7

Sky

16% rain

Storms

Thunderstorms · 16%

Lightning is a stay-tied call.

Moon

91% lit

Waxing gibbous

mid range · 91%

Water

NOAA 8723970

Water

91.9°

48°92°

Today’s range 0.9 ft

incoming

0.51 ft MLLW

Wind vs table

Observed − predicted

+0.45 ft

Observed minus predicted. Read the water, not just the printout.

Clock

NOAA 8723970

  • HighTue 11:15 AM · 1.10
  • LowTue 6:03 PM · 0.29
  • HighWed 3:18 AM · 0.87
  • LowWed 5:23 AM · 0.79
  • HighWed 12:18 PM · 1.14

Monthly YOLO day

Monday, August 31 · 8.7

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waning gibbous · mid · tide range ~0.7 ft · wind to 15 mph · Thunderstorms · 64%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

  • Channel 2 / Channel 5

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    5.9

    Moving water. Permit and tarpon on the fall and the first of the flood. Channel Five is USGS GNIS 280292 just south.

    • channel gut on a incoming tide is a workable match.
    • Thunderstorms — this mark is a stay-tied call, not a window.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    • Water is hot — deeper guts, passes, and shade hold oxygen and fish.
    skiffflyspin
  • Channel Five

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    5.9

    USGS GNIS 280292. The named cut. Current is the whole fishery. Adjacent FKNMS polygons are no-take.

    USGS GNIS 280292

    • channel gut on a incoming tide is a workable match.
    • Thunderstorms — this mark is a stay-tied call, not a window.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    • Water is hot — deeper guts, passes, and shade hold oxygen and fish.
    skiffflyspin
  • Indian Key Channel

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    5.9

    USGS GNIS 284511. The fill-and-cut current between Tea Table and Indian Key.

    USGS GNIS 284511

    • channel gut on a incoming tide is a workable match.
    • Thunderstorms — this mark is a stay-tied call, not a window.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    • Water is hot — deeper guts, passes, and shade hold oxygen and fish.
    skiffspinfly
  • Islamorada oceanside flats

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    5.7

    The mecca. Big, few, educated. Clean incoming, sun at your back. Lorelei is intel, not a mark.

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • Thunderstorms — this mark is a stay-tied call, not a window.
    • In-play: Permit.
    • Observed water is 0.4 ft above the table — the banks are wetter than printed.
    skifffly
  • Tea Table / Indian Key fills

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    5.7

    Named fills and banks. Incoming is the shot. Pressure is the tax. Indian Key Channel is USGS GNIS 284511.

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • Thunderstorms — this mark is a stay-tied call, not a window.
    • In-play: Permit.
    • Observed water is 0.4 ft above the table — the banks are wetter than printed.
    skiffflyspin
  • FL - Long Key State Park (Keys)

    sand dropoff · saved map · mid

    5.6

    Oceanfront camping with bonefish flats at the tent. Reserve far ahead. · camp-surf · GULF ATLAS! - FISH

    • sand dropoff on a incoming tide is a workable match.
    • Thunderstorms — this mark is a stay-tied call, not a window.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon, Hogfish, Yellowtail snapper, Mutton snapper.
    structurespinwade

When

  • Incoming water

    9.1

    Tue 12:00 AMTue 5:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    9.1

    Tue 4:00 AMTue 6:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    9.1

    Tue 6:00 AMTue 1:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    9.1

    Tue 1:00 PMTue 8:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    9.1

    Tue 10:00 PMWed 5:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Harry Harris Park / Tavernier

    Monroe County Parks

    County park on the oceanside at the south end of Key Largo. Tavernier Creek is the cut.

    Official source
  • Founders Park / Islamorada

    Village of Islamorada

    Public ramp, bayside. The oceanside flats are a run from here.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

No FKNMS polygon in this box. Mainland Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Mexico, and the Bahamas are not Keys sanctuary closures.

Why — and who

  • Tide is incoming from NOAA.
  • The gauge is +0.45 ft off the predicted table — read the water, not just the printout.
  • Water 91.9°F. Heat is the locator: early, late, deeper.
  • Thunderstorms · 16%. Lightning is a stay-tied call.
  • Wind 5 mph E. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • Waxing gibbous moon — mid tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

7.0

Thermal window

91.9°

66°90°

In peak season for this water. Water 92°F is the hot edge for this fish. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

7.0

Thermal window

91.9°

66°90°

In peak season for this water. Water 92°F is the hot edge for this fish. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

5.2

Thermal window

91.9°

68°94°

Present, not peak. Water 92°F is the hot edge for this fish. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

5.2

Thermal window

91.9°

66°92°

Present, not peak. Water 92°F is the hot edge for this fish. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Mutton snapper

Lutjanus analis

5.2

Thermal window

91.9°

66°90°

Present, not peak. Water 92°F is the hot edge for this fish. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 18 in, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

3.4

Thermal window

91.9°

64°92°

Off-season here. Water 92°F is the hot edge for this fish. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

5.8

Thermal window

91.9°

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. Water 92°F is the hot edge for this fish. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

91.9°

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. Water 92°F is the hot edge for this fish. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 8 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.