On This Water

Florida · Islamorada / Matecumbe

Permit should be the day — the wrecks and the falling ocean bank; pressured fish want a clean shot.

The mecca. Oceanside bones and permit, bayside backcountry, Channel 2 / Channel 5 current, wrecks for permit. Most pressured fish in the hemisphere.

  • This brief is for 2026-05-29, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
  • FKNMS no-take water in this box: Cheeca Rocks, Alligator Reef, Hen and Chickens + 3 more on the map. The red polygons are the legal source — do not fish them.
9.0OF 10

Forecast

low confidence

Forecast brief for Friday, May 29. Back to this morning

Morning line

Islamorada 9.0 on Friday, May 29. 8 mph ESE. Clear. YOLO day is Monday, August 31. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-0.9-0.40.00.50.9LHLHLHLHFri 8 AMSat 8 AMSun 8 AMMon 8 AM
outgoing · -0.64 ftModeled M2 · not a gauge

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW8MPH

From ESE · gust 9

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clear

Clear

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

96% lit

Waxing gibbous

spring range · 96%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 1.2 ft

outgoing

-0.64 ft modeled

Clock

NOAA 8723970

  • LowFri 8:00 AM · -0.64
  • HighFri 2:00 PM · 0.60
  • LowFri 9:00 PM · -0.58
  • HighSat 3:00 AM · 0.56
  • LowSat 9:00 AM · -0.53

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Monthly YOLO day

Monday, August 31 · 8.7

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waning gibbous · mid · tide range ~0.7 ft · wind to 15 mph · Thunderstorms · 63%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

  • FL - Long Key State Park (Keys)

    sand dropoff · saved map · mid

    8.7

    Oceanfront camping with bonefish flats at the tent. Reserve far ahead. · camp-surf · GULF ATLAS! - FISH

    • sand dropoff on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Tarpon, Hogfish, Yellowtail snapper, Mutton snapper.
    structurespinwade
  • Channel 2 / Channel 5

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    8.4

    Moving water. Permit and tarpon on the fall and the first of the flood. Channel Five is USGS GNIS 280292 just south.

    • channel gut on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffflyspin
  • Channel Five

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    8.4

    USGS GNIS 280292. The named cut. Current is the whole fishery. Adjacent FKNMS polygons are no-take.

    USGS GNIS 280292

    • channel gut on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffflyspin
  • Indian Key Channel

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    8.4

    USGS GNIS 284511. The fill-and-cut current between Tea Table and Indian Key.

    USGS GNIS 284511

    • channel gut on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffspinfly
  • Islamorada oceanside flats

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    7.7

    The mecca. Big, few, educated. Clean incoming, sun at your back. Lorelei is intel, not a mark.

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Bonefish, Permit.
    skifffly
  • Robbie's / Islamorada bayside

    mangrove edge · field manual · mid

    7.7

    Tarpon roll under the breakfast dock. That is a tourist fact. The backcountry behind it is the fishery.

    • mangrove edge on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Tarpon.
    skiffspinfly

When

  • Outgoing water

    10.0

    Fri 8:00 AMFri 10:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    10.0

    Fri 9:00 AMFri 4:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    9.7

    Fri 4:00 PMFri 11:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    8.7

    Fri 10:00 PMSat 5:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    10.0

    Sat 4:00 AMSat 11:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Harry Harris Park / Tavernier

    Monroe County Parks

    County park on the oceanside at the south end of Key Largo. Tavernier Creek is the cut.

    Official source
  • Founders Park / Islamorada

    Village of Islamorada

    Public ramp, bayside. The oceanside flats are a run from here.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

  • Cheeca Rocks

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Alligator Reef

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Hen and Chickens

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Davis Reef

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Conch Reef

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Conch Reef (Research Only)

    Research Only — closed except permitted science

    FKNMS GIS

+ 3 more zones on the map.

Why — and who

  • Tide is outgoing (modeled — the NOAA gauge did not answer).
  • Clear. Sky is workable.
  • Wind 8 mph ESE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • Waxing gibbous moon — spring tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

8.4

Thermal window

68°94°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

8.4

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

8.4

Thermal window

66°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

8.4

Thermal window

66°90°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

8.4

Thermal window

66°90°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Mutton snapper

Lutjanus analis

8.4

Thermal window

66°90°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 18 in, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

5.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.