On This Water

Florida · Islamorada / Matecumbe

Permit should be the day — oceanside permit and bones, or Channel 5 current — not a Texas marsh sentence. Work the leeward shore — fly gets harder.

The mecca. Oceanside bones and permit, bayside backcountry, Channel 2 / Channel 5 current, wrecks for permit. Most pressured fish in the hemisphere.

  • This brief is for 2026-03-11, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
  • FKNMS no-take water in this box: Cheeca Rocks, Alligator Reef, Hen and Chickens + 3 more on the map. The red polygons are the legal source — do not fish them.
7.4OF 10

Forecast

medium confidence

Forecast brief for Wednesday, March 11. Back to this morning

Morning line

Islamorada 7.4 on Wednesday, March 11. 20 mph ESE. Partly cloudy. YOLO day is Tuesday, August 25. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-0.7-0.4-0.00.40.7HLHLHLHLTue 8 PMWed 8 PMThu 8 PMFri 8 PMSat 8 PM
incoming · -0.10 ftNOAA hourly · ft MLLW

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW20MPH

From ESE · gust 21

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clouds

Partly cloudy

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

48% lit

Last quarter

neap range · 48%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 1.1 ft

incoming

-0.10 ft MLLW

Clock

NOAA 8723970

  • HighWed 7:12 PM · 0.53
  • LowThu 2:00 AM · -0.50
  • HighThu 8:06 PM · 0.50
  • LowFri 3:00 AM · -0.43
  • HighFri 9:00 PM · 0.49

Monthly YOLO day

Tuesday, August 25 · 9.1

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waxing gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.4 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 50%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

  • FL - Long Key State Park (Keys)

    sand dropoff · saved map · mid

    8.0

    Oceanfront camping with bonefish flats at the tent. Reserve far ahead. · camp-surf · GULF ATLAS! - FISH

    • sand dropoff on a incoming tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Tarpon, Hogfish, Yellowtail snapper, Mutton snapper.
    structurespinwade
  • Islamorada oceanside flats

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    7.3

    The mecca. Big, few, educated. Clean incoming, sun at your back. Lorelei is intel, not a mark.

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish, Permit.
    skifffly
  • Tea Table / Indian Key fills

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    7.3

    Named fills and banks. Incoming is the shot. Pressure is the tax. Indian Key Channel is USGS GNIS 284511.

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish, Permit.
    skiffflyspin
  • Channel 2 / Channel 5

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    7.2

    Moving water. Permit and tarpon on the fall and the first of the flood. Channel Five is USGS GNIS 280292 just south.

    • channel gut on a incoming tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffflyspin
  • Channel Five

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    7.2

    USGS GNIS 280292. The named cut. Current is the whole fishery. Adjacent FKNMS polygons are no-take.

    USGS GNIS 280292

    • channel gut on a incoming tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffflyspin
  • Indian Key Channel

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    7.2

    USGS GNIS 284511. The fill-and-cut current between Tea Table and Indian Key.

    USGS GNIS 284511

    • channel gut on a incoming tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffspinfly

When

  • Incoming water

    9.1

    Wed 10:00 AMWed 9:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    7.8

    Wed 8:00 PMThu 4:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    9.1

    Thu 3:00 AMThu 10:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    7.8

    Thu 9:00 PMFri 5:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    9.1

    Fri 5:00 AMFri 11:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Harry Harris Park / Tavernier

    Monroe County Parks

    County park on the oceanside at the south end of Key Largo. Tavernier Creek is the cut.

    Official source
  • Founders Park / Islamorada

    Village of Islamorada

    Public ramp, bayside. The oceanside flats are a run from here.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

  • Cheeca Rocks

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Alligator Reef

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Hen and Chickens

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Davis Reef

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Conch Reef

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Conch Reef (Research Only)

    Research Only — closed except permitted science

    FKNMS GIS

+ 3 more zones on the map.

Why — and who

  • Tide is incoming from NOAA.
  • Partly cloudy. Clouds steal the window on bones and permit.
  • Wind 20 mph ESE. This is a spin / structure / stay-home call.
  • Last quarter moon — neap tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

8.4

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

8.4

Thermal window

66°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

6.6

Thermal window

68°94°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

6.6

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

6.6

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Mutton snapper

Lutjanus analis

6.6

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 18 in, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

4.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.