On This Water

Florida · Islamorada / Matecumbe

Permit should be the day — wait for the flood; Islamorada does not forgive a low-slack cast. Work the leeward shore — fly gets harder.

The mecca. Oceanside bones and permit, bayside backcountry, Channel 2 / Channel 5 current, wrecks for permit. Most pressured fish in the hemisphere.

  • This brief is for 2026-03-09, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
  • FKNMS no-take water in this box: Cheeca Rocks, Alligator Reef, Hen and Chickens + 3 more on the map. The red polygons are the legal source — do not fish them.
6.8OF 10

Forecast

medium confidence

Forecast brief for Monday, March 9. Back to this morning

Morning line

Islamorada 6.8 on Monday, March 9. 20 mph ESE. Partly cloudy. YOLO day is Tuesday, August 25. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-0.8-0.40.00.40.8HLHLHLHLSun 8 PMMon 8 PMTue 8 PMWed 8 PMThu 8 PM
low slack · 0.09 ftNOAA hourly · ft MLLW

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW20MPH

From ESE · gust 21

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clouds

Partly cloudy

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

69% lit

Waning gibbous

neap range · 69%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 1.2 ft

low slack

0.09 ft MLLW

Clock

NOAA 8723970

  • HighMon 8:24 AM · 0.09
  • LowMon 10:48 AM · 0.03
  • HighMon 5:48 PM · 0.60
  • LowTue 12:12 AM · -0.55
  • HighTue 6:30 PM · 0.56

Monthly YOLO day

Tuesday, August 25 · 9.1

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waxing gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.4 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 50%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

  • FL - Long Key State Park (Keys)

    sand dropoff · saved map · mid

    7.2

    Oceanfront camping with bonefish flats at the tent. Reserve far ahead. · camp-surf · GULF ATLAS! - FISH

    • sand dropoff on a low slack tide is a secondary match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Tarpon, Hogfish, Yellowtail snapper, Mutton snapper.
    structurespinwade
  • Channel 2 / Channel 5

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    7.1

    Moving water. Permit and tarpon on the fall and the first of the flood. Channel Five is USGS GNIS 280292 just south.

    • channel gut on a low slack tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffflyspin
  • Channel Five

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    7.1

    USGS GNIS 280292. The named cut. Current is the whole fishery. Adjacent FKNMS polygons are no-take.

    USGS GNIS 280292

    • channel gut on a low slack tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffflyspin
  • Indian Key Channel

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    7.1

    USGS GNIS 284511. The fill-and-cut current between Tea Table and Indian Key.

    USGS GNIS 284511

    • channel gut on a low slack tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffspinfly
  • Islamorada oceanside flats

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    5.5

    The mecca. Big, few, educated. Clean incoming, sun at your back. Lorelei is intel, not a mark.

    • hard flat on a low slack tide is a secondary match.
    • In-play: Bonefish, Permit.
    skifffly
  • Robbie's / Islamorada bayside

    mangrove edge · field manual · mid

    5.5

    Tarpon roll under the breakfast dock. That is a tourist fact. The backcountry behind it is the fishery.

    • mangrove edge on a low slack tide is a secondary match.
    • In-play: Tarpon.
    skiffspinfly

When

  • Outgoing water

    9.1

    Mon 10:00 AMMon 12:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    8.8

    Mon 12:00 PMMon 8:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    8.8

    Mon 7:00 PMTue 2:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    9.1

    Tue 1:00 AMTue 8:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    7.8

    Tue 8:00 PMWed 3:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Harry Harris Park / Tavernier

    Monroe County Parks

    County park on the oceanside at the south end of Key Largo. Tavernier Creek is the cut.

    Official source
  • Founders Park / Islamorada

    Village of Islamorada

    Public ramp, bayside. The oceanside flats are a run from here.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

  • Cheeca Rocks

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Alligator Reef

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Hen and Chickens

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Davis Reef

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Conch Reef

    Sanctuary Preservation Area — no fishing / no take (typical SPA)

    FKNMS GIS
  • Conch Reef (Research Only)

    Research Only — closed except permitted science

    FKNMS GIS

+ 3 more zones on the map.

Why — and who

  • Tide is low slack from NOAA.
  • Partly cloudy. Clouds steal the window on bones and permit.
  • Wind 20 mph ESE. This is a spin / structure / stay-home call.
  • Waning gibbous moon — neap tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

7.3

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

7.3

Thermal window

66°92°

In peak season for this water.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

5.5

Thermal window

68°94°

Present, not peak.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

5.5

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

5.5

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Mutton snapper

Lutjanus analis

5.5

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak.

Florida: typically 18 in, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.5

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

3.7

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.