On This Water

Florida · Islamorada / Matecumbe

Permit should be the day — oceanside permit and bones, or Channel 5 current — not a Texas marsh sentence.

The mecca. Oceanside bones and permit, bayside backcountry, Channel 2 / Channel 5 current, wrecks for permit. Most pressured fish in the hemisphere.

  • This brief is for 2026-02-08. No wind forecast that far out — score is tide, moon, and season. Not a copper day.
8.2OF 10

Tide + moon

low confidence

Forecast brief for Sunday, February 8. Back to this morning

Morning line

Islamorada 8.2 on Sunday, February 8 — tide, moon, and season only. No wind forecast that far out. YOLO day is Tuesday, August 25. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-1.4-0.70.00.71.4LHLHLHLHSun 7 AMMon 7 AMTue 7 AMWed 7 AM
incoming · 0.83 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.

Wind

NWS

NESWMPH

No wind reading

Sky

NWS

Sky not in

Sky not in

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

63% lit

Waning gibbous

neap range · 63%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 1.9 ft

incoming

0.83 ft modeled

Clock

NOAA 8723970

  • LowSun 3:00 AM · -0.94
  • HighSun 9:00 AM · 0.96
  • LowSun 3:00 PM · -0.97
  • HighSun 9:00 PM · 0.97
  • LowMon 3:00 AM · -0.96

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Monthly YOLO day

Tuesday, August 25 · 9.1

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waxing gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.4 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 50%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • Islamorada oceanside flats

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    8.4

    The mecca. Big, few, educated. Clean incoming, sun at your back. Lorelei is intel, not a mark.

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish, Permit.
    skifffly
  • Tea Table / Indian Key fills

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    8.4

    Named fills and banks. Incoming is the shot. Pressure is the tax. Indian Key Channel is USGS GNIS 284511.

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish, Permit.
    skiffflyspin
  • FL - Long Key State Park (Keys)

    sand dropoff · saved map · mid

    8.3

    Oceanfront camping with bonefish flats at the tent. Reserve far ahead. · camp-surf · GULF ATLAS! - FISH

    • sand dropoff on a incoming tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Yellowtail snapper.
    structurespinwade
  • Channel 2 / Channel 5

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    6.8

    Moving water. Permit and tarpon on the fall and the first of the flood. Channel Five is USGS GNIS 280292 just south.

    • channel gut on a incoming tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit.
    skiffflyspin
  • Channel Five

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    6.8

    USGS GNIS 280292. The named cut. Current is the whole fishery. Adjacent FKNMS polygons are no-take.

    USGS GNIS 280292

    • channel gut on a incoming tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit.
    skiffflyspin
  • Indian Key Channel

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    6.8

    USGS GNIS 284511. The fill-and-cut current between Tea Table and Indian Key.

    USGS GNIS 284511

    • channel gut on a incoming tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit.
    skiffspinfly

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Incoming water

    9.4

    Sun 8:00 AMSun 11:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    9.4

    Sun 10:00 AMSun 5:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    9.1

    Sun 4:00 PMSun 11:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    8.0

    Sun 10:00 PMMon 5:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    9.4

    Mon 5:00 AMMon 12:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Harry Harris Park / Tavernier

    Monroe County Parks

    County park on the oceanside at the south end of Key Largo. Tavernier Creek is the cut.

    Official source
  • Founders Park / Islamorada

    Village of Islamorada

    Public ramp, bayside. The oceanside flats are a run from here.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

No FKNMS polygon in this box. Mainland Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Mexico, and the Bahamas are not Keys sanctuary closures.

Why — and who

  • Tide is incoming (modeled — NOAA 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay did not answer).
  • Waning gibbous moon — neap tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

8.4

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

6.6

Thermal window

66°92°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

6.6

Thermal window

66°90°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

4.8

Thermal window

68°94°

Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

4.8

Thermal window

66°90°

Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Mutton snapper

Lutjanus analis

4.8

Thermal window

66°90°

Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 18 in, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

4.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.