On This Water

Bahamas · Grand Bahama

Bonefish should be the day — East or West End pancakes — one fish, on foot.

East and West End pancake flats. Big single bones on foot. A town to sleep in. The thinking wade.

  • This brief is for 2026-10-16. No wind forecast that far out — score is tide, moon, and season. Not a copper day.
7.9OF 10

Tide + moon

low confidence

Forecast brief for Friday, October 16. Back to this morning

Morning line

G. Bahama 7.9 on Friday, October 16 — tide, moon, and season only. No wind forecast that far out. YOLO day is Tuesday, August 25. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-2.0-1.0-0.01.02.0LHLHLHLHFri 8 AMSat 8 AMSun 8 AMMon 8 AM
incoming · 0.83 ftModeled M2 · not a gauge

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESWMPH

No wind reading

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Sky not in

Sky not in

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

27% lit

Waxing crescent

mid range · 27%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 2.8 ft

incoming

0.83 ft modeled

Clock

Modeled M2

  • LowFri 4:00 AM · -1.26
  • HighFri 10:00 AM · 1.32
  • LowFri 4:00 PM · -1.36
  • HighFri 10:00 PM · 1.39
  • LowSat 4:00 AM · -1.40

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Monthly YOLO day

Tuesday, August 25 · 9.7

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast — and it is a copper day. waxing gibbous · mid · tide range ~2.2 ft · wind to 10 mph · Clouds · 8%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

  • West End pancakes

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    7.7

    Big singles on foot. No push pole between you and the fish. Oct–June.

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    wadeskifffly
  • East End flats

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    7.7

    Long walks. Hotel-based, which keeps it honest.

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    wadeskifffly

When

  • Incoming water

    9.4

    Fri 8:00 AMFri 12:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    9.1

    Fri 11:00 AMFri 6:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    9.1

    Fri 5:00 PMSat 12:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    8.0

    Fri 11:00 PMSat 6:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    9.4

    Sat 5:00 AMSat 12:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

Why — and who

  • Tide is incoming (modeled — no NOAA gauge on this water).
  • Waxing crescent moon — mid tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

6.6

Thermal window

64°92°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Bahamas: treat as C&R. Flats licensing has been tightening — verify before you wade.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

5.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Treat as incidental. Not why you booked the flat.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Treat big cuda as catch-and-release. Not why you booked the flat.

Regs citedBahamas flats and bonefish rules · current Bahamas guidance · rolls in 7 days. Catch-and-release is the culture on the bonefish flats. No NOAA gauge. No invented holes.