On This Water

Bahamas · Grand Bahama

Bonefish should be the day — the same flat, thinner; pick the darker single.

East and West End pancake flats. Big single bones on foot. A town to sleep in. The thinking wade.

  • This brief is for 2026-02-16. No wind forecast that far out — score is tide, moon, and season. Not a copper day.
  • Tide · modeled — no NOAA gauge
  • No NDBC on this desk
  • Sargassum check failed — not all-clear
8.1OF 10

Tide + moon

low confidence

Forecast brief for Monday, February 16. Back to this morning

Morning line

G. Bahama 8.1 on Monday, February 16 — tide, moon, and season only. No wind forecast that far out. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-1.3-0.7-0.00.61.3HLHLHLHLMon 7 AMTue 7 AMWed 7 AMThu 7 AM
outgoing · -0.65 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESWMPH

No wind reading

Buoy

No station

None

No honest NDBC or C-MAN near this water. Do not invent a buoy.

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Sky not in

Sky not in

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

0% lit

New

spring range · 0%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 1.5 ft

outgoing

-0.65 ft modeled

Coast

No live coast layer

Sargassum check failed. Not a GPS pin. Not all-clear.

Clock

Modeled M2

  • HighMon 3:00 AM · 0.79
  • LowMon 9:00 AM · -0.76
  • HighMon 3:00 PM · 0.72
  • LowMon 10:00 PM · -0.71
  • HighTue 4:00 AM · 0.71

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • West End pancakes

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    7.0

    Big singles on foot. No push pole between you and the fish. Oct–June.

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    wadeskifffly
  • East End flats

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    7.0

    Long walks. Hotel-based, which keeps it honest.

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    wadeskifffly

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. First light and last light are named when the clock is the story. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Outgoing water

    9.4

    Mon 8:00 AMMon 11:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    9.4

    Mon 10:00 AMMon 5:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Last light · outgoing

    9.1

    Mon 5:00 PMTue 12:00 AM

    Last light on outgoing water.

  • Last light · incoming

    8.0

    Mon 11:00 PMTue 6:00 AM

    Last light on incoming water.

  • First light · outgoing

    9.4

    Tue 5:00 AMTue 12:00 PM

    First light on outgoing water.

Why — and who

  • Tide is outgoing (modeled — no NOAA gauge on this water).
  • New moon — spring tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

8.4

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Bahamas: treat as C&R. Flats licensing has been tightening — verify before you wade.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Treat big cuda as catch-and-release. Not why you booked the flat.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

4.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Treat as incidental. Not why you booked the flat.

Regs citedBahamas flats and bonefish rules · current Bahamas guidance · rolls in 7 days. Catch-and-release is the culture on the bonefish flats. No NOAA gauge. No invented holes.