On This Water

Florida · Florida Bay / Flamingo

Redfish are the hunt — sit the remaining guts until the bay breathes.

Backcountry. Reds and snook live here, not on the oceanside. Snake Bight, First National, the banks west of Flamingo. Wind and water color decide the day.

  • This brief is for 2027-02-04, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
7.0OF 10

Forecast

medium confidence

Forecast brief for Thursday, February 4. Back to this morning

Morning line

Flamingo 7.0 on Thursday, February 4. 11 mph SE. Clear. YOLO day is Tuesday, August 25. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-0.5-0.20.10.40.7HLHLHLHLWed 7 PMThu 7 PMFri 7 PMSat 7 PMSun 7 PM
low slack · -0.31 ft · drag or hover for the clockNOAA tide gauge 8723970 · Vaca Key, Florida Bay · ft MLLW · not a weather buoy

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW11MPH

From SE · gust 12

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clear

Clear

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

4% lit

Waning crescent

spring range · 4%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 0.9 ft

low slack

-0.31 ft MLLW

Clock

NOAA 8723970

  • HighThu 11:05 PM · 0.57
  • LowFri 5:46 AM · -0.29
  • HighFri 3:10 PM · 0.32
  • LowFri 5:10 PM · 0.24
  • HighSat 12:08 AM · 0.58

Monthly YOLO day

Tuesday, August 25 · 8.3

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waxing gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.3 ft · wind to 12 mph · Thunderstorms · 51%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • Flamingo basins / Buttonwood

    mangrove edge · public structure · mid

    5.8

    Creeks and basins. Outgoing along the roots. Summer heat: early.

    • mangrove edge on a low slack tide is a secondary match.
    • In-play: Redfish.
    skiffkayakspinfly
  • FL - Florida Bay (Flamingo)

    mangrove edge · saved map · mid

    5.8

    Snake Bight & the backcountry; campground on site. · flats · GULF ATLAS! - FISH

    • mangrove edge on a low slack tide is a secondary match.
    • In-play: Redfish.
    skiffkayakwadeflyspin
  • First National Bank

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    5.6

    A named bank, not a secret. Sight if the water holds.

    • hard flat on a low slack tide is a secondary match.
    • In-play: Redfish.
    skifffly
  • Snake Bight

    grass flat · field manual · skinny

    5.5

    USGS GNIS 291282 (Snake Bight Channel). Flamingo backcountry. Reds live here, not on the oceanside. Wind and color decide it.

    USGS GNIS 291282

    • grass flat on a low slack tide is a secondary match.
    • In-play: Redfish.
    skiffflyspin

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Incoming water

    10.0

    Thu 10:00 AMThu 4:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    9.7

    Thu 4:00 PMThu 6:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    9.7

    Thu 6:00 PMFri 1:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    10.0

    Fri 1:00 AMFri 8:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    10.0

    Fri 7:00 AMFri 5:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Flamingo Marina

    NPS Everglades National Park

    The Florida Bay launch. Park fee. Backcountry permit if you camp.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

No FKNMS polygon in this box. Mainland Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Mexico, and the Bahamas are not Keys sanctuary closures.

Why — and who

  • Tide is low slack from NOAA 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay.
  • Clear. Sky is workable.
  • Wind 11 mph SE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • Waning crescent moon — spring tide range. Marsh and passes usually want the extra current of a spring.

Redfish

Sciaenops ocellatus

5.5

Thermal window

48°92°

Present, not peak.

Florida SE: typically 18–27 in, 1/person, 2/vessel. Harvest banned in federal waters. Keys backcountry, not oceanside. Boca Harbor yes.

Snook

Centropomus undecimalis

3.7

Thermal window

56°92°

Off-season here.

Region matters. SE/Atlantic (Jupiter, Biscayne): typically 28–32 in, 1/day, closed Dec 15–Jan 31 and June 1–Aug 31. Charlotte Harbor / Southwest (Boca Grande): typically 28–33 in, closed Dec 1–end of Feb and May 1–Sep 30. Snook permit required. Verify FWC.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

3.7

Thermal window

68°94°

Off-season here.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.5

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

3.7

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.