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Florida · Florida Bay / Flamingo

Redfish should be the day — flood Snake Bight and the Flamingo banks — backcountry reds and snook, not oceanside bones.

Backcountry. Reds and snook live here, not on the oceanside. Snake Bight, First National, the banks west of Flamingo. Wind and water color decide the day.

  • ⚠ This brief is for 2026-05-07, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
  • Tide · modeled — NOAA 8723970 quiet
  • NDBC LONF1 quiet
  • Red-tide check failed — not all-clear
  • Sargassum check failed — not all-clear
  • Water temp quiet
8.9OF 10

Forecast

low confidence

Forecast brief for Thursday, May 7. Back to this morning

Morning line

Flamingo 8.9 on Thursday, May 7. 7 mph SE. Clear. YOLO day is Tuesday, August 25. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-1.2-0.6-0.00.61.2LHLHLHLHThu 8 AMFri 8 AMSat 8 AMSun 8 AM
incoming · 0.55 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW7MPH

From SE · gust 8

Buoy

NDBC LONF1

Quiet

Long Key did not report. Witness only — not the tide clock.

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clear

Clear

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

69% lit

Waning gibbous

neap range · 69%

Water

No gauge

Water

—

48°92°

Today’s range 1.7 ft

incoming

0.55 ft modeled

Coast

No live coast layer

Red-tide check failed. That is not all-clear — open the agency page before you wade.

Sargassum check failed. Not a GPS pin. Not all-clear.

Clock

NOAA 8723970

  • LowThu 3:00 AM · -0.78
  • HighThu 10:00 AM · 0.80
  • LowThu 4:00 PM · -0.83
  • HighThu 10:00 PM · 0.85
  • LowFri 4:00 AM · -0.86

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Monthly YOLO day

Tuesday, August 25

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waxing gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.3 ft · wind to 12 mph · Thunderstorms · 51%

Stay or drive · Flamingo vs MarathonOpen the calendarMorning dispatch

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • Snake Bight

    grass flat · field manual · skinny

    8.4

    USGS GNIS 291282 (Snake Bight Channel). Flamingo backcountry. Reds live here, not on the oceanside. Wind and color decide it.

    USGS GNIS 291282

    • — grass flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • — In-play: Redfish, Snook.
    skiffflyspin

  • Flamingo basins / Buttonwood

    mangrove edge · public structure · mid

    8.3

    Creeks and basins. Outgoing along the roots. Summer heat: early.

    • — mangrove edge on a incoming tide is a workable match.
    • — In-play: Snook, Redfish, Tarpon.
    skiffkayakspinfly

  • FL - Florida Bay (Flamingo)

    mangrove edge · saved map · mid

    8.3

    Snake Bight & the backcountry; campground on site. · flats · GULF ATLAS! - FISH

    • — mangrove edge on a incoming tide is a workable match.
    • — In-play: Redfish, Snook, Tarpon.
    skiffkayakwadeflyspin

  • First National Bank

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    7.7

    A named bank, not a secret. Sight if the water holds.

    • — hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • — In-play: Redfish.
    skifffly

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. First light and last light are named when the clock is the story. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Incoming water

    10.0

    Thu 8:00 AM → Thu 11:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    9.7

    Thu 11:00 AM → Thu 6:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Last light · incoming

    9.7

    Thu 5:00 PM → Fri 12:00 AM

    Last light on incoming water.

  • Last light · outgoing

    8.7

    Thu 11:00 PM → Fri 6:00 AM

    Last light on outgoing water.

  • First light · incoming

    10.0

    Fri 5:00 AM → Fri 12:00 PM

    First light on incoming water.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Flamingo Marina

    NPS Everglades National Park

    The Florida Bay launch. Park fee. Backcountry permit if you camp.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

No FKNMS polygon in this box. Mainland Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Mexico, and the Bahamas are not Keys sanctuary closures.

Why — and who

  • — Tide is incoming (modeled — NOAA 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay did not answer).
  • — Clear. Sky is workable.
  • — Wind 7 mph SE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • — Waning gibbous moon — neap tide range. Marsh and passes usually want the extra current of a spring.

Redfish

Sciaenops ocellatus

8.4

Thermal window

—

48°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida SE: typically 18–27 in, 1/person, 2/vessel. Harvest banned in federal waters. Keys backcountry, not oceanside. Boca Harbor yes.

Snook

Centropomus undecimalis

8.4

Thermal window

—

56°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Region matters. SE/Atlantic (Jupiter, Biscayne): typically 28–32 in, 1/day, closed Dec 15–Jan 31 and June 1–Aug 31. Charlotte Harbor / Southwest (Boca Grande): typically 28–33 in, closed Dec 1–end of Feb and May 1–Sep 30. Snook permit required. Verify FWC.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

8.4

Thermal window

—

68°94°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

5.8

Thermal window

—

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

—

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.