Redfish
Sciaenops ocellatus
Thermal window
—
Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Florida SE: typically 18–27 in, 1/person, 2/vessel. Harvest banned in federal waters. Keys backcountry, not oceanside. Boca Harbor yes.
Florida · Florida Bay / Flamingo
Redfish should be the day — flood Snake Bight and the Flamingo banks — backcountry reds and snook, not oceanside bones.
Backcountry. Reds and snook live here, not on the oceanside. Snake Bight, First National, the banks west of Flamingo. Wind and water color decide the day.
- ⚠ This brief is for 2026-01-16, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
- ⚠ Snook are typically closed to harvest on the SE/Atlantic coast in this window. Verify FWC.
- Tide · modeled — NOAA 8723970 quiet
- NDBC LONF1 quiet
- Red-tide check failed — not all-clear
- Sargassum check failed — not all-clear
- Water temp quiet
Forecast
low confidence
Forecast brief for Friday, January 16. Back to this morning
Morning line
Flamingo 8.1 on Friday, January 16. 7 mph SE. Clear. YOLO day is Friday, August 28. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.
incoming · -0.54 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.
Wind
OPEN-METEO
From SE · gust 8
Buoy
NDBC LONF1
Quiet
Long Key did not report. Witness only — not the tide clock.
Sky
OPEN-METEO
Clear
Clear
A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.
Moon
5% lit
Waning crescent
mid range · 5%
Water
No gauge
Water
—
Today’s range 1.1 ft
incoming
-0.54 ft modeled
Coast
No live coast layer
Red-tide check failed. That is not all-clear — open the agency page before you wade.
Sargassum check failed. Not a GPS pin. Not all-clear.
Clock
NOAA 8723970
- LowFri 7:00 AM · -0.58
- HighFri 1:00 PM · 0.55
- LowFri 8:00 PM · -0.53
- HighSat 2:00 AM · 0.51
- LowSat 8:00 AM · -0.49
Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.
Monthly YOLO day
Friday, August 28
Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. full · spring · tide range ~0.7 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 51%
Next two weeks
Pulling the 14-day strip…
Where
This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.
- 7.7
Snake Bight
grass flat · field manual · skinny
USGS GNIS 291282 (Snake Bight Channel). Flamingo backcountry. Reds live here, not on the oceanside. Wind and color decide it.
USGS GNIS 291282
- — grass flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Redfish.
skiffflyspin - 7.7
First National Bank
hard flat · public structure · skinny
A named bank, not a secret. Sight if the water holds.
- — hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Redfish.
skifffly - 7.0
Flamingo basins / Buttonwood
mangrove edge · public structure · mid
Creeks and basins. Outgoing along the roots. Summer heat: early.
- — mangrove edge on a incoming tide is a workable match.
- — In-play: Redfish.
skiffkayakspinfly - 7.0
FL - Florida Bay (Flamingo)
mangrove edge · saved map · mid
Snake Bight & the backcountry; campground on site. · flats · GULF ATLAS! - FISH
- — mangrove edge on a incoming tide is a workable match.
- — In-play: Redfish.
skiffkayakwadeflyspin
When
When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. First light and last light are named when the clock is the story. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.
Incoming water
10.0Fri 8:00 AM → Fri 3:00 PM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Last light · outgoing
10.0Fri 3:00 PM → Fri 9:00 PM
Last light on outgoing water.
Last light · incoming
8.1Fri 9:00 PM → Sat 4:00 AM
Last light on incoming water.
First light · outgoing
8.1Sat 3:00 AM → Sat 10:00 AM
First light on outgoing water.
Incoming water
10.0Sat 9:00 AM → Sat 4:00 PM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Launch and beach access
County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.
Flamingo Marina
NPS Everglades National Park
The Florida Bay launch. Park fee. Backcountry permit if you camp.
Official source
Legal water
NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.
No FKNMS polygon in this box. Mainland Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Mexico, and the Bahamas are not Keys sanctuary closures.
Why — and who
- — Tide is incoming (modeled — NOAA 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay did not answer).
- — Clear. Sky is workable.
- — Wind 7 mph SE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
- — Waning crescent moon — mid tide range. Marsh and passes usually want the extra current of a spring.
6.6
Tarpon
Megalops atlanticus
Thermal window
—
Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.
Snook
Centropomus undecimalis
Thermal window
—
Closed to harvest — still swims, do not keep. Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Region matters. SE/Atlantic (Jupiter, Biscayne): typically 28–32 in, 1/day, closed Dec 15–Jan 31 and June 1–Aug 31. Charlotte Harbor / Southwest (Boca Grande): typically 28–33 in, closed Dec 1–end of Feb and May 1–Sep 30. Snook permit required. Verify FWC.
Great barracuda
Sphyraena barracuda
Thermal window
—
Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.
Jack crevalle
Caranx hippos
Thermal window
—
Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.
Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.