Sciaenops ocellatus
Thermal window
—
In peak season for this water.
Florida SE: typically 18–27 in, 1/person, 2/vessel. Harvest banned in federal waters. Keys backcountry, not oceanside. Boca Harbor yes.
Florida · Florida Bay / Flamingo
Redfish should be the day — wind and color decide; slack here is a look, not a grind. Work the leeward shore — fly gets harder.
Backcountry. Reds and snook live here, not on the oceanside. Snake Bight, First National, the banks west of Flamingo. Wind and water color decide the day.
- ⚠ This brief is for 2025-03-20, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
- ⚠ Thunderstorms in the forecast. Lightning is a stay-tied call. The score is not a safety brief.
- Tide · NOAA 8723970
- NDBC LONF1 quiet
- Red-tide check failed — not all-clear
- Sargassum check failed — not all-clear
- Glass · modeled
- Water temp quiet
Forecast
medium confidence
Forecast brief for Thursday, March 20. Back to this morning
Morning line
Flamingo 4.5 on Thursday, March 20. 20 mph ENE. Thunderstorms. YOLO day is Friday, August 28. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.
high slack · 0.10 ft · drag or hover for the clockNOAA tide gauge 8723970 · Vaca Key, Florida Bay · ft MLLW · not a weather buoy
Wind
OPEN-METEO
From ENE · gust 44
Buoy
NDBC LONF1
Quiet
Long Key did not report. Witness only — not the tide clock.
Sky
OPEN-METEO
Storms
Thunderstorms
Lightning is a stay-tied call.
Glass
Open-Meteo modeled
30.00 inHg
1016 mb · no 3-hour change yet
Modeled mean sea level. Not a dock barometer. The glass is not a bite.
Moon
65% lit
Waning gibbous
neap range · 65%
Water
No gauge
Water
—
Today’s range 1.2 ft
high slack
0.10 ft MLLW
Coast
No live coast layer
Red-tide check failed. That is not all-clear — open the agency page before you wade.
Sargassum check failed. Not a GPS pin. Not all-clear.
Clock
NOAA 8723970
- HighThu 5:51 PM · 0.60
- LowFri 12:12 AM · -0.58
- HighFri 6:33 PM · 0.58
- LowSat 1:06 AM · -0.55
- HighSat 7:18 PM · 0.58
Monthly YOLO day
Friday, August 28
Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. full · spring · tide range ~0.7 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 56%
Next two weeks
Pulling the 14-day strip…
Where
This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.
- 5.1
grass flat · field manual · skinny
USGS GNIS 291282 (Snake Bight Channel). Flamingo backcountry. Reds live here, not on the oceanside. Wind and color decide it.
USGS GNIS 291282
- — grass flat on a high slack tide is a workable match.
- — Thunderstorms — this mark is a stay-tied call, not a window.
- — In-play: Redfish, Snook.
skiffflyspin - 4.9
mangrove edge · public structure · mid
Creeks and basins. Outgoing along the roots. Summer heat: early.
- — mangrove edge on a high slack tide is a secondary match.
- — Thunderstorms — this mark is a stay-tied call, not a window.
- — In-play: Snook, Redfish, Tarpon.
skiffkayakspinfly - 4.9
mangrove edge · saved map · mid
Snake Bight & the backcountry; campground on site. · flats · GULF ATLAS! - FISH
- — mangrove edge on a high slack tide is a secondary match.
- — Thunderstorms — this mark is a stay-tied call, not a window.
- — In-play: Redfish, Snook, Tarpon.
skiffkayakwadeflyspin - 4.3
hard flat · public structure · skinny
A named bank, not a secret. Sight if the water holds.
- — hard flat on a high slack tide is a workable match.
- — Thunderstorms — this mark is a stay-tied call, not a window.
- — In-play: Redfish.
skifffly
When
When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. First light and last light are named when the clock is the story. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.
Last light · incoming
8.3Thu 12:00 PM → Thu 8:00 PM
Last light on incoming water.
Last light · outgoing
8.3Thu 7:00 PM → Fri 2:00 AM
Last light on outgoing water.
First light · incoming
8.6Fri 1:00 AM → Fri 8:00 PM
First light on incoming water.
Last light · outgoing
7.2Fri 8:00 PM → Sat 3:00 AM
Last light on outgoing water.
First light · incoming
8.6Sat 2:00 AM → Sat 9:00 PM
First light on incoming water.
Launch and beach access
County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.
Flamingo Marina
NPS Everglades National Park
The Florida Bay launch. Park fee. Backcountry permit if you camp.
Official source
Legal water
NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.
No FKNMS polygon in this box. Mainland Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Mexico, and the Bahamas are not Keys sanctuary closures.
Why — and who
- — Tide is high slack from NOAA 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay.
- — Thunderstorms. Lightning is a stay-tied call.
- — Wind 20 mph ENE. This is a spin / structure / stay-home call.
- — Waning gibbous moon — neap tide range. Marsh and passes usually want the extra current of a spring.
7.3
Centropomus undecimalis
Thermal window
—
Present, not peak.
Region matters. SE/Atlantic (Jupiter, Biscayne): typically 28–32 in, 1/day, closed Dec 15–Jan 31 and June 1–Aug 31. Charlotte Harbor / Southwest (Boca Grande): typically 28–33 in, closed Dec 1–end of Feb and May 1–Sep 30. Snook permit required. Verify FWC.
Megalops atlanticus
Thermal window
—
Present, not peak.
Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.
Sphyraena barracuda
Thermal window
—
Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak.
Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.
Caranx hippos
Thermal window
—
Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here.
Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.
Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 6 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.