On This Water

Florida · Miami / Biscayne Bay

Bonefish should be the day — oceanside banks for bones and permit — west-side mangroves for baby tarpon and snook.

North end of the grand-slam stage. Bones and permit on the oceanside flats and ocean banks, baby tarpon and snook in the west-side mangroves. Educated fish, short windows, boat traffic.

  • This brief is for 2027-01-04, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
  • Snook are typically closed to harvest on the SE/Atlantic coast in this window. Verify FWC.
7.1OF 10

Forecast

low confidence

Forecast brief for Monday, January 4. Back to this morning

Morning line

Biscayne 7.1 on Monday, January 4. 9 mph SE. Overcast. YOLO day is Tuesday, August 25. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-1.3-0.7-0.00.61.3LHLHLHLHMon 7 AMTue 7 AMWed 7 AMThu 7 AM
incoming · -0.54 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW9MPH

From SE · gust 9

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clouds

Overcast

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

13% lit

Waning crescent

mid range · 13%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 1.8 ft

incoming

-0.54 ft modeled

Clock

NOAA 8723214

  • LowMon 6:00 AM · -0.95
  • HighMon 12:00 PM · 0.91
  • LowMon 6:00 PM · -0.86
  • HighTue 1:00 AM · 0.84
  • LowTue 7:00 AM · -0.82

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Monthly YOLO day

Tuesday, August 25 · 9.2

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waxing gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.7 ft · wind to 16 mph · Clouds · 25%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • Featherbed Bank

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    6.7

    USGS GNIS 282399. South Biscayne classic. Incoming on the bank. Educated bones. Boat traffic is part of the problem.

    USGS GNIS 282399

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    skiffflyspin
  • Safety Valve

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    6.7

    USGS GNIS 293633. Oceanside flood. Permit and bones on a clean incoming. Wind from the east dirties it fast.

    USGS GNIS 293633

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    skifffly
  • Stiltsville / Cape Florida edge

    sand dropoff · public structure · mid

    6.7

    Public geography. Tide seams off Key Biscayne. Virginia Key gauge is the clock.

    • sand dropoff on a incoming tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    skiffflyspin
  • Cape Florida Channel

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    6.6

    USGS GNIS 279999. The Key Biscayne throat. Current seams, not a wade.

    USGS GNIS 279999

    • channel gut on a incoming tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    skiffspinfly
  • West-side mangroves

    mangrove edge · field manual · mid

    6.0

    Baby tarpon and snook. Not the oceanside slam. Outgoing along the roots.

    • mangrove edge on a incoming tide is a workable match.
    skiffkayakflyspin

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Incoming water

    9.7

    Mon 8:00 AMMon 2:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    9.7

    Mon 1:00 PMMon 8:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    7.7

    Mon 8:00 PMTue 3:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    7.7

    Tue 2:00 AMTue 9:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    9.7

    Tue 8:00 AMTue 3:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Matheson Hammock Park

    Miami-Dade Parks

    West-side mangrove and basin launch. Baby tarpon and snook water, not the oceanside slam.

    Official source
  • Crandon Marina

    Miami-Dade Parks

    Key Biscayne. Oceanside banks and Stiltsville from here. Park fee.

    Official source
  • Black Point Marina

    Miami-Dade Parks

    South Biscayne. Featherbed and the Safety Valve are the run.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

No FKNMS polygon in this box. Mainland Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Mexico, and the Bahamas are not Keys sanctuary closures.

Why — and who

  • Tide is incoming (modeled — NOAA 8723214 Virginia Key did not answer).
  • Overcast. Clouds steal the window on bones and permit.
  • Wind 9 mph SE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • Waning crescent moon — mid tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

8.4

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

4.8

Thermal window

68°94°

Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

4.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Mangrove / gray snapper

Lutjanus griseus

4.8

Thermal window

64°92°

Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 10 in, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Snook

Centropomus undecimalis

1.7

Thermal window

56°92°

Closed to harvest — still swims, do not keep. Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Region matters. SE/Atlantic (Jupiter, Biscayne): typically 28–32 in, 1/day, closed Dec 15–Jan 31 and June 1–Aug 31. Charlotte Harbor / Southwest (Boca Grande): typically 28–33 in, closed Dec 1–end of Feb and May 1–Sep 30. Snook permit required. Verify FWC.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

4.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.