On This Water

Florida · Miami / Biscayne Bay

Bonefish should be the day — the ocean banks as they empty; these fish are educated and the window is short.

North end of the grand-slam stage. Bones and permit on the oceanside flats and ocean banks, baby tarpon and snook in the west-side mangroves. Educated fish, short windows, boat traffic.

  • This brief is for 2026-05-14, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
9.0OF 10

Forecast

low confidence

Forecast brief for Thursday, May 14. Back to this morning

Morning line

Biscayne 9.0 on Thursday, May 14. 13 mph SE. Clear. YOLO day is Tuesday, August 25. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-1.1-0.50.00.61.1LHLHLHLHThu 8 AMFri 8 AMSat 8 AMSun 8 AM
outgoing · -0.79 ftModeled M2 · not a gauge

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW13MPH

From SE · gust 13

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clear

Clear

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

6% lit

Waning crescent

mid range · 6%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 1.5 ft

outgoing

-0.79 ft modeled

Clock

NOAA 8723214

  • LowThu 8:00 AM · -0.79
  • HighThu 2:00 PM · 0.75
  • LowThu 9:00 PM · -0.70
  • HighFri 3:00 AM · 0.68
  • LowFri 9:00 AM · -0.66

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Monthly YOLO day

Tuesday, August 25 · 9.2

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waxing gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.7 ft · wind to 17 mph · Clouds · 23%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

  • Cape Florida Channel

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    9.0

    USGS GNIS 279999. The Key Biscayne throat. Current seams, not a wade.

    USGS GNIS 279999

    • channel gut on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish, Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffspinfly
  • Stiltsville / Cape Florida edge

    sand dropoff · public structure · mid

    8.7

    Public geography. Tide seams off Key Biscayne. Virginia Key gauge is the clock.

    • sand dropoff on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish, Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffflyspin
  • West-side mangroves

    mangrove edge · field manual · mid

    8.4

    Baby tarpon and snook. Not the oceanside slam. Outgoing along the roots.

    • mangrove edge on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Snook, Tarpon.
    skiffkayakflyspin
  • Featherbed Bank

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    7.7

    USGS GNIS 282399. South Biscayne classic. Incoming on the bank. Educated bones. Boat traffic is part of the problem.

    USGS GNIS 282399

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Bonefish, Permit.
    skiffflyspin
  • Safety Valve

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    7.7

    USGS GNIS 293633. Oceanside flood. Permit and bones on a clean incoming. Wind from the east dirties it fast.

    USGS GNIS 293633

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Bonefish, Permit.
    skifffly

When

  • Outgoing water

    9.5

    Thu 8:00 AMThu 10:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    9.5

    Thu 9:00 AMThu 4:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    9.2

    Thu 3:00 PMThu 10:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    8.1

    Thu 10:00 PMFri 5:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    9.5

    Fri 4:00 AMFri 11:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Matheson Hammock Park

    Miami-Dade Parks

    West-side mangrove and basin launch. Baby tarpon and snook water, not the oceanside slam.

    Official source
  • Crandon Marina

    Miami-Dade Parks

    Key Biscayne. Oceanside banks and Stiltsville from here. Park fee.

    Official source
  • Black Point Marina

    Miami-Dade Parks

    South Biscayne. Featherbed and the Safety Valve are the run.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

No FKNMS polygon in this box. Mainland Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Mexico, and the Bahamas are not Keys sanctuary closures.

Why — and who

  • Tide is outgoing (modeled — the NOAA gauge did not answer).
  • Clear. Sky is workable.
  • Wind 13 mph SE. Work the leeward shore. Fly gets harder.
  • Waning crescent moon — mid tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Snook

Centropomus undecimalis

8.4

Thermal window

56°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Region matters. SE/Atlantic (Jupiter, Biscayne): typically 28–32 in, 1/day, closed Dec 15–Jan 31 and June 1–Aug 31. Charlotte Harbor / Southwest (Boca Grande): typically 28–33 in, closed Dec 1–end of Feb and May 1–Sep 30. Snook permit required. Verify FWC.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

8.4

Thermal window

68°94°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

8.4

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

8.4

Thermal window

66°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Mangrove / gray snapper

Lutjanus griseus

8.4

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 10 in, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

5.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.