On This Water

Florida · Miami / Biscayne Bay

Bonefish should be the day — the ocean banks as they empty; these fish are educated and the window is short.

North end of the grand-slam stage. Bones and permit on the oceanside flats and ocean banks, baby tarpon and snook in the west-side mangroves. Educated fish, short windows, boat traffic.

  • This brief is for 2026-02-18. No wind forecast that far out — score is tide, moon, and season. Not a copper day.
8.7OF 10

Tide + moon

low confidence

Forecast brief for Wednesday, February 18. Back to this morning

Morning line

Biscayne 8.7 on Wednesday, February 18 — tide, moon, and season only. No wind forecast that far out. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-1.3-0.70.00.71.4HLHLHLHLWed 7 AMThu 7 AMFri 7 AMSat 7 AM
outgoing · 0.04 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.

Wind

NWS

NESWMPH

No wind reading

Sky

NWS

Sky not in

Sky not in

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

2% lit

Waxing crescent

spring range · 2%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 1.3 ft

outgoing

0.04 ft modeled

Clock

NOAA 8723214

  • HighWed 5:00 AM · 0.57
  • LowWed 11:00 AM · -0.59
  • HighWed 6:00 PM · 0.61
  • LowThu 12:00 AM · -0.65
  • HighThu 6:00 AM · 0.67

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • Cape Florida Channel

    channel gut · public structure · deep

    8.4

    USGS GNIS 279999. The Key Biscayne throat. Current seams, not a wade.

    USGS GNIS 279999

    • channel gut on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish, Permit.
    skiffspinfly
  • Stiltsville / Cape Florida edge

    sand dropoff · public structure · mid

    8.1

    Public geography. Tide seams off Key Biscayne. Virginia Key gauge is the clock.

    • sand dropoff on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish, Permit.
    skiffflyspin
  • Featherbed Bank

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    7.7

    USGS GNIS 282399. South Biscayne classic. Incoming on the bank. Educated bones. Boat traffic is part of the problem.

    USGS GNIS 282399

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Bonefish, Permit.
    skiffflyspin
  • Safety Valve

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    7.7

    USGS GNIS 293633. Oceanside flood. Permit and bones on a clean incoming. Wind from the east dirties it fast.

    USGS GNIS 293633

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Bonefish, Permit.
    skifffly
  • West-side mangroves

    mangrove edge · field manual · mid

    7.0

    Baby tarpon and snook. Not the oceanside slam. Outgoing along the roots.

    • mangrove edge on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    skiffkayakflyspin

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Outgoing water

    9.4

    Wed 8:00 AMWed 1:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    9.1

    Wed 1:00 PMWed 7:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    9.1

    Wed 7:00 PMThu 2:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    9.4

    Thu 1:00 AMThu 8:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    9.4

    Thu 7:00 AMThu 2:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Matheson Hammock Park

    Miami-Dade Parks

    West-side mangrove and basin launch. Baby tarpon and snook water, not the oceanside slam.

    Official source
  • Crandon Marina

    Miami-Dade Parks

    Key Biscayne. Oceanside banks and Stiltsville from here. Park fee.

    Official source
  • Black Point Marina

    Miami-Dade Parks

    South Biscayne. Featherbed and the Safety Valve are the run.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

No FKNMS polygon in this box. Mainland Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Mexico, and the Bahamas are not Keys sanctuary closures.

Why — and who

  • Tide is outgoing (modeled — NOAA 8723214 Virginia Key did not answer).
  • Waxing crescent moon — spring tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

8.4

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

6.6

Thermal window

66°92°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Snook

Centropomus undecimalis

4.8

Thermal window

56°92°

Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Region matters. SE/Atlantic (Jupiter, Biscayne): typically 28–32 in, 1/day, closed Dec 15–Jan 31 and June 1–Aug 31. Charlotte Harbor / Southwest (Boca Grande): typically 28–33 in, closed Dec 1–end of Feb and May 1–Sep 30. Snook permit required. Verify FWC.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

4.8

Thermal window

68°94°

Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Mangrove / gray snapper

Lutjanus griseus

4.8

Thermal window

64°92°

Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 10 in, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

4.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 7 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.