Tarpon
Megalops atlanticus
Thermal window
—
In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Mexico: treat as catch-and-release. Yucatan lodge water and CONAPESCA rules — verify before you keep anything.
Mexico · Ascension Bay / Sian Ka'an
Bonefish should be the day — flood the Ascension flats off Punta Allen — bones first, permit if you earned it.
Yucatan flats. Bones, permit, and baby tarpon inside Sian Ka’an. Punta Allen is the village. Lodge water, biosphere rules. Tide is a modeled Caribbean clock — there is no NOAA gauge. Not Baja.
- ⚠ This brief is for 2027-04-27. No wind forecast that far out — score is tide, moon, and season. Not a copper day.
- ⚠ Mexico requires a CONAPESCA license. Sian Ka’an, Contoy, and Espíritu Santo are park or biosphere water — verify before you fish.
- Tide · modeled — no NOAA gauge
- No NDBC on this desk
- Sargassum check failed — not all-clear
Tide + moon
low confidence
Forecast brief for Tuesday, April 27. Back to this morning
Morning line
Ascension 8.9 on Tuesday, April 27 — tide, moon, and season only. No wind forecast that far out. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.
incoming · 0.48 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.
Wind
OPEN-METEO
No wind reading
Buoy
No station
None
No honest NDBC or C-MAN near this water. Do not invent a buoy.
Sky
OPEN-METEO
Sky not in
Sky not in
A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.
Moon
62% lit
Waning gibbous
neap range · 62%
Water
No gauge
Water
—
Today’s range 1.3 ft
incoming
0.48 ft modeled
Coast
No live coast layer
Sargassum check failed. Not a GPS pin. Not all-clear.
Clock
Modeled M2
- LowTue 3:00 AM · -0.63
- HighTue 9:00 AM · 0.63
- LowTue 4:00 PM · -0.64
- HighTue 10:00 PM · 0.65
- LowWed 4:00 AM · -0.66
Mexico tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing. There is no NOAA gauge here.
Next two weeks
Pulling the 14-day strip…
Where
This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.
- 9.0
Punta Allen / Ascension flats
hard flat · public structure · skinny
The village and the bay. Bones and permit. Sian Ka’an biosphere — lodge rules, not a freelance wade across the reserve.
- — hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Bonefish, Permit, Tarpon.
skiffflyspin - 8.3
Boca Paila
sand dropoff · public structure · mid
Named inlet north of Ascension. Permit and a tarpon on the dump. Public geography.
- — sand dropoff on a incoming tide is a workable match.
- — In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Tarpon.
skiffflyspin
When
When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. First light and last light are named when the clock is the story. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.
Incoming water
9.4Tue 8:00 AM → Tue 11:00 AM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Outgoing water
8.0Tue 11:00 AM → Tue 5:00 PM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Last light · incoming
9.1Tue 5:00 PM → Wed 12:00 AM
Last light on incoming water.
Last light · outgoing
8.0Tue 11:00 PM → Wed 6:00 AM
Last light on outgoing water.
First light · incoming
9.4Wed 5:00 AM → Wed 12:00 PM
First light on incoming water.
Launch and beach access
Lodge towns and cited marinas. CONAPESCA license. Biosphere and park water is not a freelance wade.
Punta Allen / Sian Ka’an
Sian Ka’an Biosphere / CONAPESCA
Village launch into Ascension Bay. Biosphere reserve. Lodge and park rules. CONAPESCA license.
Official source
Legal water
No-take and closed water cited to the agency that owns it. Only the Keys box is FKNMS.
No FKNMS polygon in this box. Mainland Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Mexico, and the Bahamas are not Keys sanctuary closures.
Why — and who
- — Tide is incoming (modeled — no NOAA gauge on this water).
- — Waning gibbous moon — neap tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.
8.4
Bonefish
Albula vulpes
Thermal window
—
In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Mexico: treat as C&R. Sian Ka’an / Ascension is biosphere water — lodge and CONAPESCA rules.
Permit
Trachinotus falcatus
Thermal window
—
In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Mexico: treat as catch-and-release on the Yucatan flats. Verify CONAPESCA.
Jack crevalle
Caranx hippos
Thermal window
—
Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Incidental. Not why you booked Ascension or East Cape.
Great barracuda
Sphyraena barracuda
Thermal window
—
Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Incidental. Ciguatera is a real reason not to keep a big one.
Regs citedCONAPESCA recreational license · current CONAPESCA rules · rolls in 7 days. Sian Ka’an, Contoy, and Espíritu Santo are park or biosphere water. Roosterfish is Baja, not the Gulf.