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Mexico · Ascension Bay / Sian Ka'an

Bonefish should be the day — flood the Ascension flats off Punta Allen — bones first, permit if you earned it.

Yucatan flats. Bones, permit, and baby tarpon inside Sian Ka’an. Punta Allen is the village. Lodge water, biosphere rules. Tide is a modeled Caribbean clock — there is no NOAA gauge. Not Baja.

  • ⚠ This brief is for 2027-03-05, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
  • ⚠ Mexico requires a CONAPESCA license. Sian Ka’an, Contoy, and Espíritu Santo are park or biosphere water — verify before you fish.
  • Tide · modeled — no NOAA gauge
  • No NDBC on this desk
  • Sargassum check failed — not all-clear
9.1OF 10

Forecast

low confidence

Forecast brief for Friday, March 5. Back to this morning

Morning line

Ascension 9.1 on Friday, March 5. 5 mph E. Clear. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-0.6-0.3-0.00.30.6LHLHLHLHFri 7 AMSat 7 AMSun 7 AMMon 7 AM
incoming · -0.44 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW5MPH

From E · gust 15

Buoy

No station

None

No honest NDBC or C-MAN near this water. Do not invent a buoy.

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clear

Clear

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

7% lit

Waning crescent

mid range · 7%

Water

No gauge

Water

—

48°92°

Today’s range 0.9 ft

incoming

-0.44 ft modeled

Coast

No live coast layer

Sargassum check failed. Not a GPS pin. Not all-clear.

Clock

Modeled M2

  • LowFri 7:00 AM · -0.47
  • HighFri 1:00 PM · 0.45
  • LowFri 8:00 PM · -0.43
  • HighSat 2:00 AM · 0.41
  • LowSat 8:00 AM · -0.40

Mexico tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing. There is no NOAA gauge here.

Stay or drive · Ascension vs MujeresOpen the calendarMorning dispatch

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • Punta Allen / Ascension flats

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    9.0

    The village and the bay. Bones and permit. Sian Ka’an biosphere — lodge rules, not a freelance wade across the reserve.

    • — hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • — In-play: Bonefish, Permit, Tarpon.
    skiffflyspin

  • Boca Paila

    sand dropoff · public structure · mid

    8.3

    Named inlet north of Ascension. Permit and a tarpon on the dump. Public geography.

    • — sand dropoff on a incoming tide is a workable match.
    • — In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Tarpon.
    skiffflyspin

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. First light and last light are named when the clock is the story. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Incoming water

    10.0

    Fri 8:00 AM → Fri 3:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Last light · outgoing

    9.7

    Fri 3:00 PM → Fri 9:00 PM

    Last light on outgoing water.

  • Last light · incoming

    8.7

    Fri 9:00 PM → Sat 4:00 AM

    Last light on incoming water.

  • First light · outgoing

    10.0

    Sat 3:00 AM → Sat 10:00 AM

    First light on outgoing water.

  • Incoming water

    10.0

    Sat 9:00 AM → Sat 4:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

Launch and beach access

Lodge towns and cited marinas. CONAPESCA license. Biosphere and park water is not a freelance wade.

  • Punta Allen / Sian Ka’an

    Sian Ka’an Biosphere / CONAPESCA

    Village launch into Ascension Bay. Biosphere reserve. Lodge and park rules. CONAPESCA license.

    Official source

Legal water

No-take and closed water cited to the agency that owns it. Only the Keys box is FKNMS.

No FKNMS polygon in this box. Mainland Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Mexico, and the Bahamas are not Keys sanctuary closures.

Why — and who

  • — Tide is incoming (modeled — no NOAA gauge on this water).
  • — Clear. Sky is workable.
  • — Wind 5 mph E. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • — Waning crescent moon — mid tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

8.4

Thermal window

—

64°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Mexico: treat as C&R. Sian Ka’an / Ascension is biosphere water — lodge and CONAPESCA rules.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

8.4

Thermal window

—

66°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Mexico: treat as catch-and-release on the Yucatan flats. Verify CONAPESCA.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

6.6

Thermal window

—

68°94°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Mexico: treat as catch-and-release. Yucatan lodge water and CONAPESCA rules — verify before you keep anything.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

—

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Incidental. Ciguatera is a real reason not to keep a big one.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

4.8

Thermal window

—

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Incidental. Not why you booked Ascension or East Cape.

Regs citedCONAPESCA recreational license · current CONAPESCA rules · rolls in 7 days. Sian Ka’an, Contoy, and Espíritu Santo are park or biosphere water. Roosterfish is Baja, not the Gulf.