Tarpon
Megalops atlanticus
Thermal window
—
Present, not peak.
Mexico: treat as catch-and-release. Yucatan lodge water and CONAPESCA rules — verify before you keep anything.
Mexico · Ascension Bay / Sian Ka'an
Bonefish are the hunt — look, do not grind a high-slack school across the biosphere.
Yucatan flats. Bones, permit, and baby tarpon inside Sian Ka’an. Punta Allen is the village. Lodge water, biosphere rules. Tide is a modeled Caribbean clock — there is no NOAA gauge. Not Baja.
- ⚠ This brief is for 2026-10-29, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
- ⚠ Mexico requires a CONAPESCA license. Sian Ka’an, Contoy, and Espíritu Santo are park or biosphere water — verify before you fish.
Forecast
low confidence
Forecast brief for Thursday, October 29. Back to this morning
Morning line
Ascension 6.4 on Thursday, October 29. 8 mph E. Mostly clear. YOLO day is Tuesday, August 25. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.
high slack · 0.45 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.
Wind
OPEN-METEO
From E · gust 21
Sky
OPEN-METEO
Clouds
Mostly clear
A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.
Moon
88% lit
Waning gibbous
mid range · 88%
Water
No gauge
Water
—
Today’s range 1.0 ft
high slack
0.45 ft modeled
Clock
Modeled M2
- HighThu 7:00 AM · 0.45
- LowThu 2:00 PM · -0.48
- HighThu 8:00 PM · 0.50
- LowFri 2:00 AM · -0.52
- HighFri 8:00 AM · 0.54
Mexico tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing. There is no NOAA gauge here.
Monthly YOLO day
Tuesday, August 25 · 9.7
Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waxing gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.0 ft · wind to 9 mph · Rain · 38%
Next two weeks
Pulling the 14-day strip…
Where
This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.
- 6.9
Boca Paila
sand dropoff · public structure · mid
Named inlet north of Ascension. Permit and a tarpon on the dump. Public geography.
- — sand dropoff on a high slack tide is a secondary match.
- — In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Tarpon.
skiffflyspin - 6.7
Punta Allen / Ascension flats
hard flat · public structure · skinny
The village and the bay. Bones and permit. Sian Ka’an biosphere — lodge rules, not a freelance wade across the reserve.
- — hard flat on a high slack tide is a workable match.
- — In-play: Bonefish, Permit, Tarpon.
skiffflyspin
When
When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.
Outgoing water
9.7Thu 9:00 AM → Thu 3:00 PM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Incoming water
9.4Thu 3:00 PM → Thu 10:00 PM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Outgoing water
8.3Thu 9:00 PM → Fri 4:00 AM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Incoming water
9.7Fri 3:00 AM → Fri 10:00 AM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Outgoing water
9.7Fri 9:00 AM → Fri 4:00 PM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Launch and beach access
Lodge towns and cited marinas. CONAPESCA license. Biosphere and park water is not a freelance wade.
Punta Allen / Sian Ka’an
Sian Ka’an Biosphere / CONAPESCA
Village launch into Ascension Bay. Biosphere reserve. Lodge and park rules. CONAPESCA license.
Official source
Legal water
No-take and closed water cited to the agency that owns it. Only the Keys box is FKNMS.
No FKNMS polygon in this box. Mainland Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Mexico, and the Bahamas are not Keys sanctuary closures.
Why — and who
- — Tide is high slack (modeled — no NOAA gauge on this water).
- — Mostly clear. Clouds steal the window on bones and permit.
- — Wind 8 mph E. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
- — Waning gibbous moon — mid tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.
5.5
Bonefish
Albula vulpes
Thermal window
—
Present, not peak.
Mexico: treat as C&R. Sian Ka’an / Ascension is biosphere water — lodge and CONAPESCA rules.
Permit
Trachinotus falcatus
Thermal window
—
Present, not peak.
Mexico: treat as catch-and-release on the Yucatan flats. Verify CONAPESCA.
Jack crevalle
Caranx hippos
Thermal window
—
Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak.
Incidental. Not why you booked Ascension or East Cape.
Great barracuda
Sphyraena barracuda
Thermal window
—
Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak.
Incidental. Ciguatera is a real reason not to keep a big one.
Regs citedCONAPESCA recreational license · current CONAPESCA rules · rolls in 7 days. Sian Ka’an, Contoy, and Espíritu Santo are park or biosphere water. Roosterfish is Baja, not the Gulf.