Tarpon
Megalops atlanticus
Thermal window
—
Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Mexico: treat as catch-and-release. Yucatan lodge water and CONAPESCA rules — verify before you keep anything.
Mexico · Ascension Bay / Sian Ka'an
Bonefish should be the day — flood the Ascension flats off Punta Allen — bones first, permit if you earned it.
Yucatan flats. Bones, permit, and baby tarpon inside Sian Ka’an. Punta Allen is the village. Lodge water, biosphere rules. Tide is a modeled Caribbean clock — there is no NOAA gauge. Not Baja.
- ⚠ This brief is for 2026-10-16. No wind forecast that far out — score is tide, moon, and season. Not a copper day.
- ⚠ Mexico requires a CONAPESCA license. Sian Ka’an, Contoy, and Espíritu Santo are park or biosphere water — verify before you fish.
Tide + moon
low confidence
Forecast brief for Friday, October 16. Back to this morning
Morning line
Ascension 8.4 on Friday, October 16 — tide, moon, and season only. No wind forecast that far out. YOLO day is Tuesday, August 25. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.
incoming · 0.55 ftModeled M2 · not a gauge
Wind
OPEN-METEO
No wind reading
Sky
OPEN-METEO
Sky not in
Sky not in
A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.
Moon
27% lit
Waxing crescent
mid range · 27%
Water
No gauge
Water
—
Today’s range 1.2 ft
incoming
0.55 ft modeled
Clock
Modeled M2
- LowFri 3:00 AM · -0.56
- HighFri 9:00 AM · 0.58
- LowFri 3:00 PM · -0.60
- HighFri 9:00 PM · 0.62
- LowSat 3:00 AM · -0.62
Mexico tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing. There is no NOAA gauge here.
Monthly YOLO day
Tuesday, August 25 · 9.7
Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waxing gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.0 ft · wind to 9 mph · Rain · 20%
Next two weeks
Pulling the 14-day strip…
Where
- 9.0
Punta Allen / Ascension flats
hard flat · public structure · skinny
The village and the bay. Bones and permit. Sian Ka’an biosphere — lodge rules, not a freelance wade across the reserve.
- — hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Bonefish, Permit, Tarpon.
skiffflyspin - 8.3
Boca Paila
sand dropoff · public structure · mid
Named inlet north of Ascension. Permit and a tarpon on the dump. Public geography.
- — sand dropoff on a incoming tide is a workable match.
- — In-play: Permit, Bonefish, Tarpon.
skiffflyspin
When
Incoming water
9.4Fri 8:00 AM → Fri 11:00 AM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Outgoing water
9.4Fri 10:00 AM → Fri 5:00 PM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Incoming water
9.1Fri 4:00 PM → Fri 11:00 PM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Outgoing water
8.0Fri 10:00 PM → Sat 5:00 AM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Incoming water
9.4Sat 4:00 AM → Sat 11:00 AM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Launch and beach access
Lodge towns and cited marinas. CONAPESCA license. Biosphere and park water is not a freelance wade.
Punta Allen / Sian Ka’an
Sian Ka’an Biosphere / CONAPESCA
Village launch into Ascension Bay. Biosphere reserve. Lodge and park rules. CONAPESCA license.
Official source
Legal water
No-take and closed water cited to the agency that owns it. Only the Keys box is FKNMS.
No FKNMS polygon in this box. Mainland Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Mexico, and the Bahamas are not Keys sanctuary closures.
Why — and who
- — Tide is incoming (modeled — no NOAA gauge on this water).
- — Waxing crescent moon — mid tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.
6.6
Bonefish
Albula vulpes
Thermal window
—
Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Mexico: treat as C&R. Sian Ka’an / Ascension is biosphere water — lodge and CONAPESCA rules.
Permit
Trachinotus falcatus
Thermal window
—
Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Mexico: treat as catch-and-release on the Yucatan flats. Verify CONAPESCA.
Jack crevalle
Caranx hippos
Thermal window
—
Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Incidental. Not why you booked Ascension or East Cape.
Great barracuda
Sphyraena barracuda
Thermal window
—
Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Incidental. Ciguatera is a real reason not to keep a big one.
Regs citedCONAPESCA recreational license · current CONAPESCA rules · rolls in 7 days. Sian Ka’an, Contoy, and Espíritu Santo are park or biosphere water. Roosterfish is Baja, not the Gulf.